Exit Polls Show Congress Gains in South, Weakness in East and Northeast

Key facts

• Exit polls project Congress-led alliance may return to power in Kerala.
• DMK-led coalition expected to retain power in Tamil Nadu, with Congress as ally.
• Congress likely to win only a handful of seats in West Bengal.
• Congress projected to fall short of 30 seats in Assam's 126-member assembly.
• Congress not expected to cross double digits in Puducherry.
• Counting of votes for all five states scheduled for May 4, 2026.

Mixed Projections for Congress Across States

Exit polls for the 2026 assembly elections in five Indian states paint a geographically uneven picture for the Congress party. While the party appears poised for gains in southern India, its performance in the east and northeast remains weak. In Kerala, anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan appears to benefit the Congress-led alliance, with projections indicating a possible return to power. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is expected to be part of the ruling DMK-led coalition, which exit polls consistently show returning to power. However, beyond the south, the outlook dims. In West Bengal, the party may be reduced to a marginal presence with only a handful of seats. In Assam, despite raising multiple issues against the BJP government led by Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Congress is projected to fall short of even 30 seats in the 126-member assembly. In Puducherry, the party is unlikely to cross double digits.

RJD MP Manoj Jha Questions Exit Poll Credibility

Rashtriya Janata Dal MP Manoj Jha cast doubts on the reliability of exit polls, citing their history of inaccuracies and limited voter sampling. Speaking on May 3, a day before counting, Jha said it was difficult for polling agencies to accurately gauge voter sentiment in what he described as an “intense political climate.” “You can look at the history of exit polls. How many voters can you interact with, that too in such an intense political climate? We should all wait for tomorrow,” Jha said, urging the public to wait for official results. Congress MP Manickam Tagore also dismissed exit poll projections, calling them “commercialised” and urging patience until the official verdict is announced.

Pollsters Predict BJP-Led Alliance Majority in Assam

Several pollsters, including Axis My India, JVC, and Matrize, have predicted a majority for the BJP-led alliance in Assam, with seat projections ranging between 85 and 101 in the 126-member assembly. These projections suggest a comfortable return for the BJP-led NDA government in the state. In West Bengal, exit polls indicate a strong performance for the BJP, with some projecting a historic win that could unseat the Trinamool Congress government led by Mamata Banerjee. The projections show the BJP making significant inroads, potentially winning a majority of seats. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led coalition is expected to retain power, with actor-turned-politician Vijay's TVK party making a notable debut but possibly falling short of a majority.

Congress Relies on Southern Alliances for Political Respite

The exit poll projections underscore the Congress party's reliance on southern alliances to maintain political relevance. After its success in Karnataka, a potential win in Kerala and alliance gains in Tamil Nadu could provide some political respite for the party. However, from western India to the northeast, the Congress appears to be struggling to regain lost ground. The party's electoral footprint remains uneven, with shrinking influence in large parts of the country. The results, when declared on May 4, will determine whether these projections translate into a meaningful revival or remain limited to regional pockets.

Counting Scheduled for May 4 Across Five States

Counting of votes for the assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry will take place on May 4, 2026. The Election Commission has made arrangements for timely counting, with results expected to be declared by the evening. In Assam, the BJP-led alliance is projected to retain power, while in West Bengal, a close fight is expected between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. In Kerala, the Congress-led alliance hopes to unseat the Left Democratic Front government. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led coalition is expected to return to power, and in Puducherry, the Congress is unlikely to form the government.

Political Implications and Future Outlook

The exit poll results, if accurate, would reinforce the Congress's status as a party with strong regional pockets but limited national reach. The party's performance in the south could provide a boost, but its weakness in other regions raises questions about its ability to challenge the BJP nationally. For the BJP, a strong showing in West Bengal and Assam would consolidate its position in the east and northeast, further expanding its electoral footprint. The results could also impact the political landscape ahead of the 2029 general elections. However, as RJD MP Manoj Jha and Congress MP Manickam Tagore have cautioned, exit polls are not definitive. The actual verdict of voters will be known only after counting on May 4.

The bottom line

• Exit polls show Congress gaining in Kerala and Tamil Nadu but weak in West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry.
• RJD MP Manoj Jha and Congress MP Manickam Tagore question exit poll reliability, urging patience until official results.
• Pollsters project BJP-led alliance majority in Assam with 85-101 seats; strong performance in West Bengal.
• DMK-led coalition expected to retain power in Tamil Nadu; actor Vijay's TVK makes debut but may not form government.
• Counting for all five states set for May 4, 2026, with results likely by evening.
• The elections could reshape India's political map, with Congress relying on southern alliances and BJP expanding in the east.