Geelong's 14-Match Winning Streak Against North Melbourne Faces Its Sternest Test

Key facts

• Geelong has won the past 14 meetings against North Melbourne, including a 101-point victory in their most recent encounter.
• Both teams enter the match with identical 4-3 records, Geelong at 108.6% and North Melbourne at 115.9%.
• Mark Blicavs sustained lateral ligament damage in his left knee during last week's loss to Port Adelaide and is in a brace.
• Patrick Dangerfield has managed only three games this season and had just four disposals in the Port Adelaide loss.
• Dimers' predictive model gives Geelong an 82% chance of winning the Round 8 clash at GMHBA Stadium.
• The over/under total is set at 188.5 points, with a 52% probability of staying under according to the model.
• George Wardlaw was withdrawn from North Melbourne's lineup on Friday due to illness.
• Geelong regains defenders Sam de Koning and Jake Kolojdashnij for the match.

Cats Seek Redemption After Port Adelaide Upset

Geelong enters Saturday's clash at GMHBA Stadium under unusual pressure. The Cats, runners-up last season, were upset by Port Adelaide in Round 7 and now face a North Melbourne side that has not beaten them in 14 attempts. Coach Chris Scott acknowledged the need for a swift response without overreacting. "We're not at the stage where we're going to dig ourselves into a bigger hole by focusing on all the things that went wrong when we don't think that constitutes a pattern," Scott said. of caution: "I don't think anyone could or should interpret what I'm saying as, 'Oh, it was just one of those nights and we've got to move on.' We're much more diligent in our review than that, but overall we're still optimistic around what's possible for us."

Blicavs Injury Adds to Geelong's Concerns

The Cats' injury list grew during the Port Adelaide loss when Mark Blicavs suffered lateral ligament damage in his left knee. The versatile utility is now walking with the joint in a brace, and no firm timeline has been set for his return. Scott expressed cautious optimism. "What's clear is it looks unlikely that it's a long-term thing," he said. "Then they're kind of open-minded and thinking about what's possible over the next couple of weeks. I think that gives you a bit of an idea. But I try not to get too excited about it. You hear it might be much better than we think, and then you set yourself up for disappointment." Captain Patrick Dangerfield, who has played only three games this season after an interrupted preparation, managed just four disposals against Port Adelaide — a performance that has raised further questions about Geelong's midfield depth.

North Melbourne's Rising Challenge

North Melbourne arrives at GMHBA Stadium with a 4-3 record and a percentage of 115.9%, slightly superior to Geelong's 108.6%. The Kangaroos have not beaten the Cats since 2018, a drought that spans 14 matches and includes a 101-point thrashing in their most recent encounter. However, the Roos have shown marked improvement in 2026 and view this game as their biggest test yet. Their lineup suffered a late blow when George Wardlaw was ruled out on Friday due to illness, but they will face a Geelong side that is far from full strength. Geelong regains defensive duo Sam de Koning and Jake Kolojdashnij, bolstering a backline that will need to contain North Melbourne's emerging forward line.

Statistical Outlook Favours Geelong

Independent predictive models strongly favour the home side. Dimers' advanced AFL model gives Geelong an 82% chance of victory, suggesting the bookmakers' odds are justified. The model also indicates a 50% probability for each team to cover the spread, while the over/under total of 188.5 points has a 52% chance of staying under. These numbers reflect Geelong's historical dominance and home-ground advantage at GMHBA Stadium, but North Melbourne's improved percentage suggests they are more competitive than in previous seasons. The match, scheduled for 4:35pm AEST, will be broadcast live on Fox Footy and streamed on Kayo, with coverage beginning at 4pm AEST.

Wider Context: Geelong's Season at a Crossroads

At 4-3, Geelong sits in the middle of the AFL ladder, a position that feels unfamiliar for a team that contested last year's grand final. The loss to Port Adelaide exposed vulnerabilities that had been masked by earlier wins, and the Blicavs injury adds to a growing list of concerns. Scott's comments reflect a coach walking a tightrope between acknowledging problems and maintaining belief. "We're much more diligent in our review than that, but overall we're still optimistic around what's possible for us," he said, signalling that internal scrutiny has been intense. For North Melbourne, a victory would not only end a 14-match losing streak but also announce their arrival as a genuine finals contender. The Roos have not beaten Geelong since 2018, and doing so at GMHBA Stadium would be a statement result.

What Comes Next

The immediate stakes are clear: Geelong needs a win to halt a slide and restore confidence, while North Melbourne sees an opportunity to prove their improvement is real. A loss for the Cats could trigger deeper questions about their premiership credentials, especially with Blicavs sidelined and Dangerfield struggling for form. Scott hinted that Blicavs could return sooner than expected, but until then, Geelong must rely on its established stars and the returning defenders to steady the ship. For North Melbourne, the challenge is to convert promise into a result that has eluded them for nearly a decade. The outcome at GMHBA Stadium will resonate beyond Round 8, shaping the narratives for both clubs as the season approaches its midpoint.

The bottom line

• Geelong's 14-match winning streak against North Melbourne is on the line as both teams hold identical 4-3 records.
• Mark Blicavs' knee injury (lateral ligament damage) and Patrick Dangerfield's poor form are major concerns for the Cats.
• North Melbourne's George Wardlaw is out due to illness, but Geelong regains Sam de Koning and Jake Kolojdashnij.
• Predictive models give Geelong an 82% chance of winning, with a 52% probability the total points stay under 188.5.
• A Geelong loss could intensify scrutiny on their premiership credentials, while a North Melbourne win would end a long drought and boost finals hopes.
• Chris Scott's cautious optimism about Blicavs suggests a return within weeks, but no firm timeline exists.