Jess Wilson survives first electoral test as One Nation surge reshapes Nepean by-election

Key facts

• Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh won the Nepean by-election with 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis.
• One Nation candidate Darren Hercus secured 24.7% of the primary vote, while independent Tracee Hutchison received 21.3%.
• The Liberal Party suffered a 9.6% swing against it on the primary vote compared to the previous election.
• Labor did not field a candidate in the by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth.
• Marsh admitted he does not live in the electorate and could not vote for himself.
• Jess Wilson proposed a $598,000 salary cap for top government executives, estimated to save $20 million by 2036.

A fragmented electorate delivers a warning

Victoria’s new Liberal leader, Jess Wilson, has survived her first electoral test, but the Nepean by-election has laid bare a deeply fragmented political landscape. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Wilson acknowledged that voters are looking beyond the major parties, with One Nation capturing nearly a quarter of the primary vote. “I don’t think there’s any denying the fact that we have a very fragmented electorate,” she said, adding that some voters told her they were “sick and tired of politicians spinning.” The by-election, held on Saturday in the Mornington Peninsula seat, was triggered by the sudden resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. The seat had been held by the Liberals since its creation, except for a four-year period when it fell to Labor. Despite retaining the seat, the party suffered a significant 9.6% swing against it on the primary vote, a result that Wilson described as a “lesson” for the party. “We know that we have lessons to learn from last night’s result,” Wilson said. “We know we have more to do every day between now and the election to earn the trust of Victorians, and that is my commitment to them.”

One Nation’s strong showing and a “clean campaign”

One Nation candidate Darren Hercus effectively conceded the by-election less than half an hour before the Liberals claimed victory on Saturday night. Speaking to supporters at One Nation headquarters, Hercus held up a roll of toilet paper and said the party ran a “clean campaign.” He framed the result as a “launching pad” for the party in the November state election. “Even if we don’t win, we stuck to the moral high ground,” Hercus said. “This leads us into November. It’s a launching pad – we’ll go hard, we’re going to go again. And One Nation is going to bring it home in November.” With 24.7% of the primary vote, One Nation outperformed independent candidate Tracee Hutchison, who had 21.3%. The Victorian Electoral Commission initially ran the two-candidate preferred count as a race between the Liberals and Hutchison, but she slipped behind Hercus as counting progressed. The result underscores the challenge both major parties face in winning back voters who have turned to minor parties and independents.

Anthony Marsh claims victory despite not living in the electorate

Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh appeared to be in a commanding position as counting continued, with close to 80% of the vote counted. He secured 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis. In a speech to supporters, Marsh said, “I’m so glad I could bring it home for you tonight. This is the honour of my life to be standing here as the next member for Nepean.” He pledged to “be on the ground each and every single day fighting for the people of Nepean as we lead into one of the most important state elections that we’ve seen.” However, Marsh was forced to admit that he does not live in the electorate and therefore could not vote for himself on Saturday. He noted that he had been mayor in the area three times over the past five years, a fact he offered to counter concerns about his residency. The admission did not appear to significantly affect his support, but it adds a layer of complexity to the Liberal campaign as they prepare for the November poll.

Wilson’s policy push: salary cap for top executives

Amid the by-election campaign, Wilson announced a proposal to cap the salaries of top government executives at $598,000. The opposition estimates that the change could save taxpayers $20 million by 2036. The policy is part of the Liberals’ broader effort to differentiate themselves from the Labor government on fiscal management, as Victoria faces mounting budgetary pressures. Treasury had been banking on a property price rise through 2026 to bolster the state’s bottom line, but falling house prices in Melbourne threaten to blow a billion-dollar hole in the budget. The salary cap proposal, reported by Kieran Rooney and Patrick Hatch, is one of several measures the Liberals are putting forward as they seek to rebuild trust with voters. Wilson has also committed to preferencing One Nation at the state election, a strategy designed to galvanise the anti-Labor vote but one that risks a backlash in the party’s urban and middle-suburb heartland.

Broader context: Labor’s absence and the road to November

Labor opted not to field a candidate in the Nepean by-election, a decision that allowed the Liberals to retain the seat but also deprived voters of a direct choice between the two major parties. The result has been interpreted by both Labor and Liberal strategists as a warning sign for their opponents, with one in four voters choosing One Nation. The by-election is seen as a preview of what to expect when the rest of the state goes to the polls in November, and the fragmentation of the electorate is likely to complicate the campaigns of both major parties. Wilson welcomed the result but emphasised that the party still has more work to do. The Liberals are also grappling with internal challenges, including the fallout from a preference deal with One Nation and the need to address voter dissatisfaction with political spin. As the November state election approaches, the Nepean result serves as a stark reminder that the political landscape in Victoria is shifting, with minor parties and independents playing an increasingly influential role.

What comes next: lessons and looming challenges

The Nepean by-election has provided both major parties with a clear signal that the electorate is restless and willing to look beyond traditional allegiances. For Wilson, the result is a double-edged sword: she has passed her first electoral test, but the swing against her party and the strong showing by One Nation indicate that the path to victory in November is fraught with difficulty. The Liberals must now work to win back the trust of voters who have drifted to minor parties, while also defending their heartland seats from potential upsets. Wilson’s commitment to earning the trust of Victorians will be tested in the coming months as she leads her party into the state election. The by-election has also highlighted the importance of local issues and the need for candidates to connect with their constituents. Marsh’s residency issue, while not decisive in Nepean, could become a liability in other seats if similar questions arise. As the count continues and the final numbers are confirmed, both parties will be poring over the data to understand the shifting dynamics of the Victorian electorate.

The bottom line

• Jess Wilson survived her first electoral test as Liberal leader, but the party suffered a 9.6% swing against it in Nepean.
• One Nation captured 24.7% of the primary vote, signaling a fragmented electorate and a challenge to both major parties.
• Liberal candidate Anthony Marsh won the seat despite not living in the electorate, a fact that may become a campaign issue.
• Wilson proposed a $598,000 salary cap for top government executives, estimated to save $20 million by 2036.
• Labor did not contest the by-election, allowing the Liberals to retain the seat but also depriving voters of a direct major-party choice.
• The result is a preview of the November state election, where minor parties and independents are expected to play a significant role.