BJP Surges Past 200 Seats in West Bengal, Ending Trinamool's 15-Year Rule

Key facts

• BJP has won or is leading in 204 seats, well past the 148 needed for a majority.
• Trinamool Congress is confined to 83 seats, a sharp decline from its 2021 tally of 215.
• Voter turnout was 92.47%, the highest since Independence, amid concerns over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls.
• In Bhabanipur, Mamata Banerjee leads by 3,830 votes after 14 rounds, with BJP's Suvendu Adhikari close behind.
• Congress won its first seat since 2021, with Motab Shaikh defeating BJP by 8,193 votes in Farakka.
• Counting was temporarily halted in Bhabanipur for 30 minutes due to unspecified reasons.
• BJP candidate Noman Rai won Darjeeling by 6,057 votes, while Shankar Ghosh leads in Siliguri by over 72,000 votes.
• Repolling is scheduled for Falta constituency on May 21, delaying the final result for that seat.

A Landslide for the BJP

The Bharatiya Janata Party has swept to power in West Bengal, winning or leading in 204 of the 293 seats where counting is underway.s a dramatic reversal of fortune for the Trinamool Congress, which had governed the state for 15 years and won 215 seats in the 2021 election. The BJP's tally, which includes 73 seats already declared and leads in 131 more, gives it a comfortable majority in the 294-member assembly, with one seat—Falta—yet to vote due to a repoll ordered for May 21. The scale of the victory has stunned observers. Exit polls had failed to project a clear winner, with some predicting a BJP edge and others forecasting a Trinamool return. The final outcome, however, underscores a decisive shift in voter sentiment, driven by what Union Home Minister Amit Shah called a "befitting reply to fear, appeasement, and protection to infiltrators." In a series of posts on X, Shah declared that parties engaged in the politics of appeasement "will not forget this lesson."

Trinamool's Stunning Collapse

The Trinamool Congress, which had dominated Bengal politics since 2011, has been reduced to just 83 seats, a loss of 132 from its 2021 performance. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who lost her own Nandigram seat to Suvendu Adhikari in 2021 and was later elected from Bhabanipur in a bypoll, now faces a stiff challenge in her current constituency. After 14 rounds of counting in Bhabanipur, Banerjee leads by only 3,830 votes, with 48,671 votes against Adhikari's 44,841. The margin has been steadily shrinking, raising the possibility of a recount or a surprise defeat. The party's decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including a record deletion of voters under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and a wave of anti-incumbency. The BJP, led by state president Shyamaprasad Mukherjee's ideological heir, has successfully tapped into discontent over corruption, infiltration, and what it calls the "politics of fear." In a symbolic gesture, BJP state president Shyamaprasad Mukherjee visited the residence of party founder Shyamaprasad Mukherjee in Bhabanipur to offer floral tributes before heading to the party headquarters.

Key Battles and Upsets

Several high-profile contests have shaped the election narrative. In Darjeeling, BJP's Noman Rai won by 6,057 votes, securing 62,076 votes in a constituency that has traditionally been a battleground for regional parties. In Siliguri, BJP's Shankar Ghosh leads by over 72,000 votes, prompting the Trinamool candidate Gautam Deb to effectively concede defeat. Other notable victories include BJP's Rupa Gangopadhyay in Sonarpur Dakshin, who defeated Trinamool's Lovely Maitra, and BJP's Durga Murmu in Fansi Dewa, who won by 46,776 votes. However, the BJP faced allegations of violence in Mathabhanga, where a Trinamool worker's home was attacked by alleged BJP-backed miscreants, according to local reports. Police from Ghoksadanga station arrived at the scene. In Ratua, BJP candidate Abhishek Singhania staged a sit-in protest, alleging that the seals of 3-4 EVMs were broken and that BJP agents were expelled from the counting centre. The Trinamool candidate Samar Mukherjee was leading in that constituency at 5 PM.

Congress Makes a Comeback

The Congress party, which had drawn a blank in the 2021 assembly election, won its first seat in Farakka, Murshidabad district. Motab Shaikh, whose name was initially missing from the electoral rolls and was only included after a Supreme Court-appointed tribunal intervened, defeated BJP's Sunil Chowdhuri by 8,193 votes. Shaikh secured 63,050 votes, while Chowdhuri got 54,857 and Trinamool's Amirul Islam came third with 47,256 votes. The Congress is also leading in Raninagar, suggesting a modest revival for the party in the state. The Left Front, led by the CPI(M), failed to make any significant impact, continuing its decline since the 2011 defeat. The results are seen as a barometer of the BJP's ability to expand its footprint in eastern India, while a strong showing by the TMC would have reinforced its dominance. Instead, the BJP's victory signals a realignment of Bengal's political landscape.

High Turnout and Security Concerns

The election recorded a voter turnout of 92.47%, the highest since Independence, despite concerns over the SIR-driven deletion of voters. Counting began at 8 AM across 77 centres and 458 halls, with 293 counting observers, 165 additional counting observers, and 77 police observers deployed. Multi-layered security, including central forces, was in place at all counting centres. The process was temporarily halted in Bhabanipur for 30 minutes, though no official reason was given. In Falta, repolling is scheduled for May 21, meaning the final result for that seat will be delayed. The Election Commission has not yet announced the date for the final declaration of results for all 294 seats.

National Implications

The BJP's victory in West Bengal is seen as a major boost for the party's national ambitions, particularly in eastern India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wearing a dhoti, arrived at the BJP headquarters to address supporters, alongside party chief Nitin Nabin. Nabin saluted the sacrifices of party workers, saying, "Trinamool spread fear in Bengal. Our workers sacrificed their lives, our mothers and sisters lost their brothers and sons. I salute them." Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma described the mandate as a "people's mandate to protect the country's sovereignty." The results also have implications for the 2029 general election, as the BJP aims to build on its gains in a state that has long been a stronghold of regional parties. The Trinamool's defeat raises questions about the future of Mamata Banerjee's leadership and the party's ability to recover from this setback.

What Comes Next

With the BJP set to form the government, attention now turns to the selection of the next chief minister. While the party has not yet announced its candidate, Suvendu Adhikari, who challenged Banerjee in Bhabanipur, is considered a frontrunner. The new government will face immediate challenges, including addressing the concerns raised by the SIR voter deletions and ensuring a smooth transition of power. The Trinamool Congress, meanwhile, must regroup and decide its strategy for the future. The party's defeat, after 15 years in power, marks a watershed moment in Bengal politics. As counting continues, the final tally will determine the exact shape of the opposition and the margin of the BJP's mandate.

The bottom line

• The BJP has won or is leading in 204 seats, securing a clear majority in the West Bengal assembly, ending Trinamool's 15-year rule.
• Trinamool Congress has been reduced to 83 seats, a loss of 132 from 2021, with Mamata Banerjee facing a tight race in Bhabanipur.
• Voter turnout was a record 92.47%, the highest since Independence, amid controversy over the Special Intensive Revision of voter rolls.
• Congress won its first seat since 2021, with Motab Shaikh defeating BJP in Farakka by 8,193 votes.
• Counting was temporarily halted in Bhabanipur, and allegations of EVM tampering were raised in Ratua, where BJP agents were reportedly expelled.
• The BJP's victory is seen as a mandate against 'appeasement' and 'infiltration,' and reshapes Bengal's political landscape ahead of future national elections.