Lucky loser Potapova stuns Rybakina, Pliskova, Ostapenko to reach Madrid Open semifinal

Key facts

• Potapova lost to Sinja Kraus in qualifying for the Madrid Open.
• She entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
• She defeated Elena Rybakina, Karolina Pliskova, and Jelena Ostapenko en route to the semifinal.
• She is the first lucky loser to reach a WTA 1000 semifinal.
• Potapova has represented Austria since December 2024 but has Russian roots.
• She is one win away from the final; a potential opponent is Mirra Andreeva.
• Andreeva leads the head-to-head 3-1, including a win in the Linz Open final two weeks ago.
• Andreeva's only loss to Potapova came at the 2022 Jasmin Open in Monastir, when she was 15.

From qualifying loss to historic run

Anastasia Potapova did not plan to be here. She lost to Sinja Kraus in the qualifying rounds of the Madrid Open and did not expect to reach the main draw, let alone make a deep run. Yet the 23-year-old has now become the first lucky loser in WTA 1000 history to advance to the semifinals. Since entering the draw as a replacement, Potapova has knocked out three top-tier opponents: Elena Rybakina, Karolina Pliskova, and Jelena Ostapenko. Each victory came against a former Grand Slam champion or top-10 player, underscoring the scale of her achievement.

One win from the final, a possible meeting with Andreeva

Potapova is now just one victory away from a spot in the Madrid Open final. If she wins her semifinal, she could face Mirra Andreeva, who has spoken highly of Potapova throughout the tournament. Andreeva, who turned 19 last month, has already established herself as a rising force on the WTA Tour. The potential final would be the fifth meeting between the two players. Andreeva currently leads the head-to-head 3-1, having defeated Potapova in the Linz Open final just over two weeks ago. That victory extended Andreeva's winning record against Potapova across all surfaces.

A friendship rooted in shared heritage

Despite representing Austria since December 2024, Potapova maintains strong ties to her Russian roots, which connect her to Andreeva. In her post-match press conference, Potapova spoke warmly about their relationship. "Well, I know her so well. We are actually good friends. We talk a lot," she said. "Also with her parents, such lovely people. She is so talented. She's so young." Potapova added: "We just played a final a week ago, what can I say? She already is a little champion, and I just want to wish her all the best. I'm rooting for her all the time with all my heart." She emphasized that she can only say good things about Andreeva, calling her a future great.

Andreeva's dominance and a lone defeat

Andreeva's head-to-head advantage over Potapova is comprehensive. She has won on every surface, with her only loss coming at the 2022 Jasmin Open in Monastir, Tunisia, when she was just 15 years old. Since then, Andreeva has won three consecutive matches against Potapova, including the Linz final. If the two meet in Madrid, Andreeva will be the favorite based on recent form. But Potapova's run as a lucky loser has already defied expectations, and she has shown she can beat top players under pressure.

What a Madrid final would mean

A Potapova-Andreeva final would be a compelling narrative: two friends with shared roots, one a lucky loser rewriting history, the other a teenage sensation. For Potapova, reaching the final would be the culmination of an improbable journey. For Andreeva, it would be another step toward fulfilling the potential that Potapova herself has praised. Potapova said of Andreeva: "I really think she can be the greatest. She has it all and I would be just happy for her. And if we can play final it will be very beautiful." The tennis world will watch to see if that beauty becomes reality.

The bottom line

• Anastasia Potapova is the first lucky loser to reach a WTA 1000 semifinal, after defeating Rybakina, Pliskova, and Ostapenko.
• She lost in qualifying to Sinja Kraus and did not expect to make the main draw.
• Potapova now represents Austria but shares Russian roots with Mirra Andreeva, whom she calls a good friend.
• Andreeva leads the head-to-head 3-1, including a win in the Linz Open final two weeks ago.
• Andreeva's only loss to Potapova came in 2022 when she was 15.
• A potential final between the two would be their fifth meeting and a highlight of the tournament.