Trump Signs Order Reviving Keystone XL Route, Authorizing Cross-Border Oil Pipeline

Key facts

• President Donald Trump signed a cross-border permit on April 30, 2026, for the Bridger Pipeline project.
• The pipeline would transport Canadian crude from the U.S.-Canada border in Phillips County, Mont., to Guernsey, Wyo.
• South Bow, spun off from TC Energy in 2024, is partnering with U.S. firm Bridger Pipeline on the project.
• The project could increase Canada's crude exports to the U.S. by more than 12 percent.
• South Bow is seeking firm commitments for 450,000 barrels per day from Canadian oil shippers.
• Approximately 150 km of pipe already built in Alberta and Saskatchewan sits idle since Keystone XL's cancellation.
• Guernsey is not an end market; additional links would be needed to reach Cushing, Okla., Patoka, Ill., and the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A Presidential Permit Revives a Cross-Border Pipeline

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order authorizing a cross-border permit for a pipeline project that would transport Canadian crude oil from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming. The order marks a significant step toward reviving parts of the cancelled Keystone XL pipeline, which was blocked by former President Joe Biden in 2021 amid years of Indigenous and environmental opposition. The project is proposed by Canadian pipeline company South Bow, which was spun off from former Keystone XL proponent TC Energy in 2024, and its U.S. partner Bridger Pipeline. A presidential permit was required for the project to proceed because it crosses an international border.

A Different Route, but Using Existing Canadian Pipe

The new proposal involves a different route through the United States than the previous Keystone XL project. Bridger Pipeline is pursuing construction of a potential 1,038-kilometre pipeline beginning near the U.S.-Canada border in Phillips County, Montana, and ending in Guernsey, Wyoming. However, the project would use some of the previously built pipe on the Canadian side, where the Keystone XL line is already fully permitted. In 2021, about 150 kilometres of pipe were installed in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and that pipe has been sitting idle since the project's cancellation.

White House Ceremony and Political Context

As Trump signed the order, White House Staff Secretary Will Scharf told the president, "This is a trans-border pipeline similar to the old Keystone XL pipeline." Trump responded, "A lot of jobs, too. A lot of jobs. OK, very good." At a White House event, Trump contrasted his administration's approach with that of his predecessor. "Slightly different than the last administration," he said. "They wouldn't sign a pipeline deal, and we have pipelines going up."

Economic Impact and Shipper Commitments

The pipeline could increase Canada's crude exports to the United States by more than 12 percent if it goes ahead, according to the companies. South Bow is seeking firm commitments from Canadian oil shippers for 450,000 barrels per day on the pipeline. South Bow spokesperson Solomiya Martoiu said in an emailed statement, "South Bow continues to evaluate the Prairie Connector project, a potential expansion of its Canadian asset base that would leverage existing infrastructure and permitted corridors to improve market access for Canadian crude oil." She added that the project "remains in early stages and is subject to ongoing commercial, stakeholder and rightsholder discussions, regulatory processes and evaluation."

Regulatory Hurdles and Market Outlook

Analysts caution that the project faces additional hurdles beyond the presidential permit. State regulatory permits will also be required, and potential court challenges remain a risk, said Matthew Lewis, founder of Plainview Energy Analytics. "Provided potential shippers are comfortable with the regulatory risk, the economics of the project appear sound, and the pipeline will be able to offer competitive rates to major U.S. market hubs," Lewis said. Bridger Pipeline executive partner Tad True hailed the White House authorization, saying it brings the cross-border project "one step closer to reality." However, analysts note that Guernsey is not an end market for oil, so additional links would need to be built to transport oil to refining hubs such as Cushing, Oklahoma; Patoka, Illinois; and the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Broader Energy Landscape and Canadian Options

The revived pipeline project is not the only option for Canadian oil exports. Canada's energy minister has noted that Keystone XL is not the only option, and Prime Minister Carney has said an Alberta oil pipeline is "more likely than not." Meanwhile, Imperial Oil is churning out more diesel and jet fuel as the Middle East war drives up prices. The project's revival comes amid ongoing debates over energy infrastructure, Indigenous rights, and environmental concerns that have long surrounded the Keystone XL pipeline.

The bottom line

• Trump signed a presidential permit on April 30, 2026, authorizing a cross-border pipeline from Montana to Wyoming.
• The project is a joint venture between South Bow (spun off from TC Energy) and Bridger Pipeline.
• It would use 150 km of existing pipe in Canada and could boost Canadian crude exports by over 12%.
• South Bow is seeking 450,000 barrels per day in shipper commitments; the project is in early stages.
• Additional state permits and court challenges remain; Guernsey is not a final market for the oil.
• The pipeline revives part of the cancelled Keystone XL route but follows a different U.S. path.