Renegade Favored but Rail Jinx Looms Over Wide-Open 152nd Kentucky Derby

Key facts

• The 152nd Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026, at 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs.
• Renegade is the morning-line favorite at 4-1 odds but drew the No. 1 post position, from which no horse has won since Ferdinand in 1986.
• Renegade is trained by Todd Pletcher and will be ridden by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
• Commandment and Further Ado are co-second favorites at 6-1, both trained by Brad Cox.
• Five horses have been scratched: The Puma, Fulleffort, Silent Tactic, Right to Party, and another unnamed.
• The race will be broadcast on NBC and USA Network, with streaming on Peacock and the NBC Sports app.
• Cool but dry weather is forecast for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, a contrast to last year's wet track.
• Expert Jody Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in 17 years and is fading Renegade.

A Wide-Open Field and a Tricky Post

The 152nd Kentucky Derby, set for Saturday at Churchill Downs, features a field so balanced that even the race caller is uncertain. “I don’t know who the favourite is going to be,” said NBC’s Larry Collmus. “I guess we’ll find out. It’s wide open this year.” Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher, opened as the 4-1 morning-line favorite but drew the inside No. 1 post position—a spot that has not produced a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. “It’s not the one we would have chosen,” Pletcher admitted. “It’s not ideal, but it’s what we got and we’ll do the best we can with it.” Pletcher noted that replays of every race since the new starting gate was introduced in 2020 showed horses on the rail were negatively affected. The last horse to finish in the money from the inside post was Lookin At Lee in 2017.

Renegade’s Record and the Arkansas Derby Curse

Renegade enters the race on a strong run: he won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on March 28 and the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on February 7, and placed second in the Remsen at Aqueduct in December. Yet the Arkansas Derby has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since American Pharoah in 2015; the only others were Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Smarty Jones in 2004. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., one of the world’s best, will ride Renegade. “Irad’s riding in great form right now, so they just got to work it out,” Pletcher said. “I think his natural running style is to kind of settle and make one run like he has been doing, so we’re not looking to change that.”

Brad Cox’s Duo: Commandment and Further Ado

Brad Cox originally entered three horses but scratched Fulleffort on Thursday due to a chip in the colt’s left hind ankle. His remaining contenders, Commandment and Further Ado, are both listed at 6-1. Commandment has won four straight races, including the Florida Derby on March 28, and is known for his early speed. However, questions linger about his closing speed over the 1¼-mile distance. Further Ado returned from a lengthy absence to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, blowing away the field with a Speed Score of 127—a sharp jump from his previous big-race figures of 109 and 104. That discrepancy gives some experts pause. “You could really make an argument at this point for maybe half the horses in the field if they ran their very, very best race and had a good trip that could win this race,” said Chad Brown, trainer of Emerging Market.

Expert Picks and a Longshot to Watch

Veteran horse racing analyst Jody Demling, who has correctly predicted the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in 17 years and nailed the top three finishers in the 2025 Derby, is fading Renegade. He also does not pick Commandment or Further Ado to win, though he includes the latter in exacta and trifecta considerations. Demling is high on a longshot that “demolished the field” in its last start, according to his analysis. He is sharing his full projected leaderboard and betting picks on SportsLine. The race remains so open that at least a half-dozen horses have a legitimate chance, according to trainers and oddsmakers.

Scratches and Weather Reshape the Field

The original 20-horse field has been reduced to 19 after five scratches: The Puma (10-1) scratched Saturday morning; Fulleffort was withdrawn Thursday due to an ankle chip; Silent Tactic (Mark Casse) and Right to Party (Kenny McPeek) also scratched, allowing Great White, Ocelli, and Robusta to enter from the far outside. Weather forecasts call for cool but dry conditions, a relief after last year’s wet and sloppy track. The dry track may favor different running styles than the mudders who thrived in 2025.

What’s at Stake in the Run for the Roses

The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown, and a wide-open field means any of the top contenders could emerge as a star. The race will be broadcast on NBC and USA Network, with streaming on Peacock and the NBC Sports app. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. For bettors, the uncertainty creates opportunity. As one trainer put it, “If they run their very, very best race and had a good trip, they could win this race.” The 152nd Derby may be remembered not for a dominant favorite, but for the chaos that unfolds in the first two minutes.

The bottom line

• Renegade is the 4-1 morning-line favorite but faces a historical disadvantage from the No. 1 post position.
• Brad Cox’s Commandment and Further Ado are strong contenders at 6-1, each with recent graded stakes wins.
• Five horses have been scratched, reducing the field to 19; dry weather is expected.
• Expert Jody Demling is fading the favorite and recommends a longshot that dominated its last race.
• The race is considered wide open, with at least six horses having a legitimate chance to win.
• The 152nd Kentucky Derby airs Saturday, May 2, at 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC and USA Network.