Irregular betting on Erceg-Elliott fight sparks scrutiny ahead of UFC Perth

Key facts

• Steve Erceg vs. Tim Elliott flyweight bout scheduled for May 2, 2026 at RAC Arena in Perth.
• Erceg opened as -285 favorite on April 22, reached -600, then dropped to -175.
• Elliott's odds shifted from +245 to +145.
• liability for this fight is three times that of any other bout on the card.
• 91% of sharp bets placed on Elliott.
• UFC has previously canceled fights due to irregular betting, including Hernandez vs. Johnson at UFC 324.
• FBI is investigating a November 2025 fight involving Isaac Dulgarian after suspicious betting patterns.
• Erceg (13-4) has lost three of his last four fights; Elliott (21-13-1) has won four of his last five.

BetOnline flags unusual betting patterns

Sports betting site BetOnline has publicly flagged what it calls “irregular action” on the Steve Erceg vs. Tim Elliott flyweight bout scheduled for Saturday’s UFC Perth card. The liability for this single fight is three times that of the next closest bout on the card, according to a BetOnline representative. Adam Burns, BetOnline’s sportsbook manager, posted on X: “Big line move in Erceg vs Elliott, very weird. Erceg opened -400 down to -175 and dropping… Fishy?” The odds shift is so drastic that the sportsbook is calling it rare to see. Erceg opened as a -285 favorite on April 22, with Elliott at +245. At one point, Erceg’s odds ballooned to -600, but money has since flooded in on Elliott, dropping Erceg to -175 and pushing Elliott to +145. More than 91% of sharp bets—wagers placed by professional gamblers—have come in on Elliott.

No proof of foul play, but history raises concerns

BetOnline has stated there is no proof that anything nefarious has taken place. However, the dramatic line movement has drawn comparisons to past UFC incidents where irregular betting preceded fight cancellations or investigations. In January, a lightweight bout between Alexander Hernandez and Michael Johnson was scrapped from UFC 324 due to irregular betting patterns. The UFC never re-booked the fight; both fighters lost their subsequent matchups. Last November, the UFC allowed a featherweight fight between Isaac Dulgarian and Yadier del Valle to proceed despite sportsbooks reporting extremely odd betting behavior. Dulgarian, a heavy favorite, saw his odds drop massively on fight day as money poured in on del Valle. Dulgarian lost by first-round submission, and UFC president Dana White later revealed the FBI is investigating the bout. Dulgarian has since disappeared from social media, and del Valle lost his next fight easily.

Fighters' recent form and contrasting preparations

Erceg (13-4) is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Ode Osbourne last summer in Las Vegas, but prior to that had dropped three straight fights. Elliott (21-13-1), nine years older at 39, has won four of his last five and is coming off back-to-back submission victories over Ode Osbourne and Kai Asukura. Elliott has adopted an unconventional training camp for this fight, cutting out all strength and conditioning, running, and lifting. Instead, he sparred three or four times a week, drilled hard, and grappled live. “This is the first fight I've ever gone into where I'm not limping into the cage,” Elliott said at a pre-fight news conference. “I feel good, strong. I'm getting older but I've changed the way that I train.” Despite 21 UFC fights, Elliott has never recorded a TKO or knockout in the promotion. His last stoppage of that kind came in December 2011 against Jens Pulver at RFA 1. Elliott is openly seeking a knockout this time, saying, “I'm looking for a knockout. I know everybody says that. I don't have a knockout yet in the UFC. But again, this camp was different. I wasn't taking guys down. I was beating guys' ass in the gym.”

Erceg's odds swing: head-fake betting or something else?

The initial surge in Erceg’s odds from -285 to -600 may have been a result of head-fake betting, where bettors place wagers on the opposite side of their intended position to manipulate lines. However, the subsequent flood of money on Elliott suggests a more sustained shift in market sentiment. As of now, the Erceg vs. Elliott bout is still scheduled to proceed as planned with 13 fights on the UFC Perth card. The promotion has yet to comment on the irregular betting activity. Elliott, for his part, has not watched much tape on Erceg, only his fight against Brandon Moreno in Mexico City. “He's tough. He's well-rounded. I think he's really, really solid everywhere. He doesn't have the danger factor of the last guy I fought,” Elliott said. “It's a little bit of a weight off my shoulders, not having to worry about being head kicked or knocked out.”

UFC's track record with betting irregularities

The UFC has faced recurring issues with irregular betting over the last several months. The cancellation of the Hernandez-Johnson fight and the FBI investigation into the Dulgarian-del Valle bout highlight the seriousness with which authorities are now treating such patterns. In the Dulgarian case, the fighter was a big favorite but saw his odds drop massively on fight day, with heavy money on underdog del Valle. Dulgarian lost by first-round submission, and observers noted he did not appear to fight the choke vigorously. Del Valle then lost his next bout easily to Jordan Leavitt, drawing further scrutiny. These precedents put the Erceg-Elliott fight under a microscope. While the bout remains on the card, the unusual betting action has already prompted public commentary from the sportsbook and raised questions about the integrity of the matchup.

What happens next: fight proceeds under cloud of suspicion

The Erceg-Elliott fight is still scheduled to go ahead on Saturday at RAC Arena in Perth. However, the betting irregularities may prompt further investigation by the UFC or regulatory bodies. For Elliott, a win would be a career highlight, especially given his age and unorthodox training methods. For Erceg, a loss would extend his losing streak to four of five, casting doubt on his trajectory in the flyweight division. The broader implications for the UFC are significant. If the fight proceeds and the result aligns with the betting pattern—an Elliott victory—it could fuel further scrutiny of the promotion's handling of suspicious wagering activity. If Erceg wins, the line movement may be dismissed as an anomaly. Either way, the episode underscores the growing tension between sports betting and fight integrity in an era where online wagering is ubiquitous.

The bottom line

• BetOnline flagged 'irregular action' on the Erceg-Elliott fight, with liability three times higher than any other bout on the card.
• Erceg's odds dropped from -600 to -175, while Elliott's rose from +245 to +145, with 91% of sharp bets on Elliott.
• The UFC has previously canceled fights (Hernandez vs. Johnson) and faced FBI investigations (Dulgarian vs. del Valle) due to irregular betting.
• Elliott changed his training to focus solely on sparring, aiming for his first UFC knockout.
• The fight is still scheduled, but the unusual betting patterns have raised questions about its integrity.
• No official comment from the UFC or regulatory bodies has been made as of now.