TFI International surges 43% as analysts hike targets after earnings beat

Key facts

• TFI International shares rose 43% since late March, closing at $193.46 on Friday.
• TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl raised price target to $209 from $177, calling discount to peers 'unwarranted'.
• CIBC's Kevin Chiang hiked target to $221 from $185, citing strong momentum exiting Q1.
• Revenue per truck increased year over year in Q1, excluding fuel surcharge.
• Shares are up 85% since the company reversed its decision to move headquarters to the U.S. in February 2025.
• Consensus 12-month price target is $207.75 based on 18 analysts.
• GFL Environmental shares fell 13% after Secure Waste acquisition, but TD Cowen sees 'attractive price'.
• David Rosenberg warns of weaker U.S. dollar post-war, favors gold and emerging market bonds.

A transport stock defies gravity

Shares of TFI International Inc. have climbed 43 percent since late March, closing at $193.46 on Friday, as a string of price-target hikes from major banks followed stronger-than-expected earnings and guidance. The Quebec-based transport and logistics company beat analyst estimates for the first quarter and issued second-quarter guidance on April 27 that surpassed expectations, triggering upgrades from Bank of America, Citigroup, and TD Cowen, among others. TD Cowen analyst Jason Seidl raised his target to $209 from $177, arguing that the stock's current discount to peers is "unwarranted." He highlighted the company's strong balance sheet and its continued emphasis on returning excess free cash flow to shareholders. CIBC Capital Markets analyst Kevin Chiang followed suit, lifting his target to $221 from $185, noting that "the key takeaway from TFII's first-quarter results and earnings call was that it saw strong momentum exiting the quarter."

Momentum builds through spring

Shipment volumes accelerated in March and continued into April, Chiang added, while revenue per truck rose year over year in the first quarter, excluding a fuel surcharge. The strong operational performance marks a sharp reversal from a year ago, when investors abruptly sold off the stock in late February 2025 after the company announced plans to move its headquarters to the United States — a decision it quickly reversed. Since that reversal, shares have surged 85 percent. The stock now carries a 12-month consensus price target of $207.75, based on the calls of 18 analysts tracked by Bloomberg.

GFL Environmental: punished but defended

Elsewhere on the TSX, GFL Environmental Inc. saw its shares drop about 13 percent after announcing the purchase of Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. But TD Cowen analyst James Schumm said he was "warming up" to the deal. on May 1, he argued that "critical and difficult-to-replace disposal assets deserve to trade at premium valuations" and that GFL is paying an attractive price despite commodity risk. Schumm reiterated his buy rating and $90 price target, even as the stock closed Friday at $52.36 — near all-time lows. He said the market is "unduly punishing" GFL. The stock's 12-month consensus target stands at $72.35, based on 19 analyst estimates from Bloomberg.

Preparing for a weaker dollar

David Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research & Associates, warned investors that the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken in a post-war environment, as concerns over Federal Reserve independence, elevated government deficits, and possibly narrowing interest rate differentials weigh on the currency. on April 24, he said the dollar's impending decline opens the door for gold and international assets such as emerging market bonds. "The resumption of the dollar's downtrend reinforces our bullish view on these two asset classes, as their structural trends are set to normalize post-conflict," Rosenberg wrote. Gold had gained 22 percent before the start of the war on Feb. 28, though year-to-date bullion is now up about six percent. Rosenberg said the fundamentals that drove gold up 65 percent in 2025 remain intact, and the recent pullback reflects speculative outflows.

Central banks buy gold on dips

central banks took advantage of the price pullback to load up on gold in the first quarter. Rosenberg expects a slumping dollar to boost total returns on emerging market bonds by shrinking the local currency debt burden. He also said other international equities excluding Japan, as well as commodities such as uranium and copper, will benefit from a weaker greenback. For Canadian investors, the analysis underscores the importance of diversifying beyond U.S.-dollar-denominated assets as geopolitical tensions subside and monetary policy divergences narrow.

The bottom line

• TFI International's 43% rally is backed by strong Q1 earnings, rising shipment volumes, and multiple analyst upgrades.
• The stock's 85% recovery since reversing its U.S. headquarters plan shows investor sensitivity to corporate domicile decisions.
• GFL Environmental's post-acquisition sell-off may be overdone, with analysts citing attractive valuation of disposal assets.
• A weaker U.S. dollar post-war is expected to benefit gold, emerging market bonds, and commodities like uranium and copper.
• Central banks are accumulating gold on price dips, reinforcing bullish fundamentals for the precious metal.
• Canadian investors should consider hedging against dollar weakness through international equities and commodities.