Vasilevskiy's Playoff Decline: Screened Shots and Deflections Expose a Formerly Unbeatable Goalie

Key facts

• Andrei Vasilevskiy has an.878 save percentage and a 4-13 record since the 2023 playoffs.
• He has allowed four or more goals in eight postseason games since 2023.
• His goals saved above expected in the playoffs since 2023 is minus-four.
• Tampa Bay has not won a playoff series since the 2023 postseason.
• Vasilevskiy's save percentage on screened shots dropped from.946 in 2020 to.773 in 2023 and.842 in 2025.
• His save percentage on deflected shots fell from.943 in 2021 to.750 in 2023 and.667 in 2025.
• Derek Lalonde, a former Lightning assistant, noted in a 2023 broadcast that Vasilevskiy struggled picking up shots from the point.
• Vasilevskiy remains a Vezina Trophy finalist and posts strong regular-season numbers.

A Once-Unbeatable Goalie Shows Cracks

Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender who built a reputation as the great equalizer through multiple Stanley Cup runs, now faces doubts about his postseason performance. Heading into a crucial Game 2 against the Montreal Canadiens, his numbers over the past three post-seasons have cratered. Since the start of the 2023 playoffs, Vasilevskiy owns an.878 save percentage, a 4-13 record, and minus-four goals saved above expected, allowing four or more goals on eight occasions. Tampa Bay has not won a playoff series during this span. The dip is stark because Vasilevskiy continues to post strong regular-season numbers, remaining among the best in save percentage and goals saved above expected. But the postseason has exposed a vulnerability that opponents are now systematically exploiting. With key members of the Lightning's core aging, cap constraints tightening, and injuries mounting, the team can no longer afford merely good goaltending—they need Vasilevskiy to be elite to keep their contention window open.

The Screened-Shot Vulnerability

The root of Vasilevskiy's playoff struggles appears to be a weakness on shots he cannot see clearly. During a playoff broadcast in 2023, Derek Lalonde, then the Detroit Red Wings head coach and a former Lightning assistant, noted that Vasilevskiy at times struggled picking up shots from the point. Teams have been trying to take advantage of it ever since. Data from SportLogiq confirms the trend. When the Lightning won the Cup in 2020, Vasilevskiy had a.946 save percentage on screened shots during the postseason. In the 2023 playoffs, that number plummeted to.773 in an opening-round loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Last year, the Florida Panthers again capitalized with traffic in front, as Vasilevskiy only managed an.842 save percentage on screened shots.

Deflections Also a Growing Problem

A similar pattern emerges on deflected shots. Vasilevskiy's save percentage off tips was.943 in 2021, but fell to.750 in 2023 and.667 in 2025. The decline is dramatic and consistent, suggesting opponents have identified a clear weakness. In the current series against Montreal, the Canadiens are making a concerted effort to create chaos around Vasilevskiy. Josh Anderson's disallowed goal in Game 1 exemplified the strategy: bodies crowding the crease, making it difficult for Vasilevskiy to track the puck. The approach is not unique—playoff hockey always emphasizes net-front presence—but the Canadiens are executing it with precision.

Size Does Not Shield the Weakness

What makes Vasilevskiy's vulnerability surprising is his size. At six-foot-four, he is one of the league's biggest goaltenders, and one might expect screened shots and deflections to have a better chance of hitting him. Yet the numbers show the opposite: his save percentage on such shots has fallen well below league average in recent postseasons. Opposing teams are taking full advantage. The Lightning's defense has also struggled, but the goaltender's declining numbers are a central factor in the team's inability to advance past the first round since 2022. Vasilevskiy, once intimidating and seemingly impenetrable, now appears human in the biggest moments.

Stakes for Tampa Bay's Window

The Lightning are running out of time. With an aging core, salary cap constraints, and a growing list of injuries, the margin for error is shrinking. Vasilevskiy is no longer a luxury; the team needs him to be elite to compete. If his playoff decline continues, Tampa Bay may see its contention window close sooner than expected. The series against Montreal is a test not just of Vasilevskiy's ability to adjust, but of the Lightning's capacity to adapt around him. The team has yet to find an answer, and the questions are mounting.

Outlook: Can Vasilevskiy Adjust?

The coming games will reveal whether has been building against him. He remains capable of brilliant performances—his regular-season numbers prove that—but the postseason has become a different arena. For Tampa Bay, the path forward may require defensive adjustments to clear sightlines, or a tactical shift to limit opponents' net-front presence. But the onus ultimately falls on Vasilevskiy to reclaim his form. If he cannot, the Lightning's hopes of another championship will dim rapidly.

The bottom line

• Andrei Vasilevskiy's postseason save percentage since 2023 is.878, with a 4-13 record and minus-four goals saved above expected.
• His save percentage on screened shots fell from.946 in 2020 to.773 in 2023 and.842 in 2025; on deflections it dropped from.943 in 2021 to.667 in 2025.
• Derek Lalonde first noted Vasilevskiy's difficulty with point shots in a 2023 broadcast, and teams have since exploited it.
• Tampa Bay has not won a playoff series since the 2023 postseason, and Vasilevskiy's decline is a key factor.
• Despite strong regular-season numbers, Vasilevskiy's playoff performance threatens the Lightning's contention window as the core ages and cap constraints tighten.
• Montreal is actively creating traffic in front of Vasilevskiy, as seen in Josh Anderson's disallowed goal in Game 1.