Renegade Draws Inside Rail as 4-1 Favorite for 152nd Kentucky Derby

Key facts

• The 152nd Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET.
• Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., is the 4-1 morning-line favorite from the No. 1 post position.
• No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.
• Bob Baffert, a two-time Triple Crown winner, seeks a record seventh Derby victory with Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1).
• Brad Cox saddles three entrants: Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1), and Fulleffort (20-1).
• Riley Mott, 34, makes his Derby debut as a trainer with Albus (30-1) and Incredibolt (20-1); his father Bill Mott trains Chief Wallabee (8-1).
• Litmus Test will wear blinkers after struggling without them in a prior race; the horse's sire won the Breeders' Cup and was named Horse of the Year.

A Favorite Against History

Renegade, the 4-1 morning-line favorite for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, will break from the inside rail — a post position that has not produced a winner in 40 years. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt, ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., drew the No. 1 post in a full field of 20 horses for Saturday's race at Churchill Downs. No horse has finished first from that post since Ferdinand in 1986; the most recent top-three finish from the rail was Lookin At Lee, who placed second in 2017. Despite the historical headwind, oddsmakers have installed Renegade as the clear favorite, reflecting his undefeated record in two starts this year and the confidence of his connections. Ortiz Jr., a two-time Belmont Stakes winner, chose Renegade over other Derby entrants Further Ado and Commandment, signaling the colt's perceived class. Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner, will seek his third victory in the Run for the Roses.

Baffert’s Quest for a Record Seventh Win

Bob Baffert, already a two-time Triple Crown champion, enters the Derby with two longshots as he aims to break a tie with Ben Jones for the most Derby wins by a trainer. Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1) carry Baffert’s hopes for a record seventh victory. Litmus Test, the last horse to secure a spot in the field after Chip Honcho was scratched to target the Preakness, will wear blinkers after struggling without them in a prior race at Arkansas. Litmus Test’s pedigree is notable: his sire won the Breeders’ Cup and was named Horse of the Year, and the colt broke his maiden at Del Mar. Baffert’s history of success with longshots — including 12-1 Medina Spirit in 2021 — means neither horse can be dismissed. Potente, at 20-1, offers another layer of intrigue in a wide-open field.

Cox’s Trio and the Commandment Question

Trainer Brad Cox fields three contenders, led by Commandment and Further Ado, both listed at 6-1 on the morning line. Commandment, winner of the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, drew the No. 6 post, which Cox praised for its potential to save ground. However, racing analyst Michelle Yu has publicly faded Commandment, citing diminishing win margins as race distances increased. “I don’t like that his win margins have diminished as the races have gotten longer,” Yu told SportsLine, noting that the colt labored in the Florida Derby’s final furlong. Further Ado, with three-time Derby-winning jockey John Velazquez aboard, drew the No. 18 post — an outside position Cox welcomed. “Very happy with that post: I wanted him to draw outside,” Cox said. Cox’s third entrant, Fulleffort (20-1), drew the far-outside No. 20 post, prompting Cox to call it “probably the one I’m maybe not as wild about.” The trainer’s only previous Derby win came in 2021 when Mandaloun was declared the winner after Medina Spirit’s disqualification.

Father-Son Duel Adds Personal Stakes

The Derby features a rare father-son dynamic: Bill Mott, trainer of 2019 winner Country House and 2025 winner Sovereignty, saddles Chief Wallabee (8-1), while his son Riley Mott makes his Derby debut with Albus (30-1) and Incredibolt (20-1). Chief Wallabee has not won since breaking his maiden in January but finished second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and third in the Florida Derby. Bill Mott seeks back-to-back Derby victories after Sovereignty’s win last year. Riley Mott, 34, described reaching the Derby as a lifelong dream. “This has been my passion my entire life. Just to reach this stage and be in the mix is a very big deal for our stable and for myself personally,” he said. Of his father’s horse, he added, “I don’t know him right now. He’s our competition. Very formidable, obviously, but we’re just focused on our horses.” Albus, coming off a win in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and Incredibolt will try to upstage the veteran.

Yu’s Picks and the Longshot Angle

Racing analyst Michelle Yu, who correctly picked Medina Spirit at 12-1 in 2021 and Rich Strike at 18-1 in 2022, has released her 2026 Derby selections. Yu is high on Chief Wallabee at 8-1, describing the colt as “screaming for more ground.” She also recommends a double-digit longshot who “drew perfectly,” though she has not named the horse publicly. Yu’s track record includes hitting the exacta in the 2025 Kentucky Derby and nailing the Renegade-Silent Tactic-Taptastic trifecta in the Arkansas Derby in March 2026. Yu is fading Commandment despite his 6-1 odds, citing concerns about jockey Luis Saez’s Derby history: Saez has never finished in the top two in the Derby, with a best finish of third aboard Essential Quality in 2021. Saez finished first in 2019 but was disqualified for interference. Yu’s picks are available on SportsLine, where she has also highlighted a horse she believes is undervalued in the betting market.

The Field and What’s at Stake

The 20-horse field includes several international and longshot entries. Japan-bred Wonder Dean (30-1) adds an international flavor, while Danon Bourbon (20-1) and So Happy (15-1) round out the mid-tier odds. The full field, with post positions and morning-line odds: No. 1 Renegade (4-1), No. 2 Albus (30-1), No. 3 Intrepido (30-1), No. 4 Litmus Test (30-1), No. 5 Right To Party (30-1), No. 6 Commandment (6-1), No. 7 Danon Bourbon (20-1), No. 8 So Happy (15-1), No. 9 (vacant), No. 10 Wonder Dean (30-1), No. 11 Incredibolt (20-1), No. 12 Chief Wallabee (8-1), No. 13 Silent Tactic (20-1), No. 14 Potente (20-1), No. 15 Emerging Market (15-1), No. 16 Pavlovian (30-1), No. 17 Six Speed (50-1), No. 18 Further Ado (6-1), No. 19 Golden Tempo (30-1), No. 20 Fulleffort (20-1). Four also-eligible horses — Great White, Ocelli, Robusta, and Corona de Oro — could join if scratches occur. The Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes on May 16 and the Belmont Stakes on June 6. A dry track is forecast, favoring the front-runners. The winner will earn a purse of $3 million, with the champion’s share likely exceeding $1.8 million.

History, Odds, and the Unpredictable Mile and a Quarter

The Kentucky Derby, known as the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports,” has produced its share of upsets and historic moments. The 2026 edition carries extra weight: Baffert’s pursuit of a seventh win, the father-son Mott subplot, and the statistical anomaly of the No. 1 post all add layers to a race that is inherently unpredictable. The last horse to win from the rail, Ferdinand in 1986, went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic later that year — a reminder that post positions are just one variable. As the field loads into the starting gate on Saturday, the betting public will weigh history against form. Renegade’s inside draw may be a curse or a challenge to overcome; Commandment’s fading margins may be a warning or a false signal; and Baffert’s longshots may be exactly the kind of story the Derby loves to write. The only certainty is that at 6:57 p.m. ET, 20 horses will break from the gate, and the 152nd Run for the Roses will begin.

The bottom line

• Renegade is the 4-1 favorite from the No. 1 post, a position that hasn't produced a winner since 1986.
• Bob Baffert seeks a record seventh Derby win with two longshots, Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1).
• Brad Cox's Commandment (6-1) is a favorite but has drawn skepticism from analyst Michelle Yu over declining win margins.
• Riley Mott makes his Derby debut as a trainer, facing his father Bill Mott, who trains Chief Wallabee (8-1).
• Litmus Test will wear blinkers after struggling without them, adding a tactical variable to Baffert's chances.
• The Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness follows on May 16 and the Belmont on June 6.