Apple to freeze iPhone 18 Pro base prices despite soaring memory costs, analyst predicts

Key facts

• Analyst Jeff Pu predicts Apple will use 'aggressive pricing' for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max base models.
• Base models expected to start at $1,099 (Pro) and $1,199 (Pro Max), same as iPhone 17 series.
• Higher storage tiers may see price increases to protect margins.
• Apple is also preparing an iPhone Ultra model with a likely higher price tag.
• iPhone 18 Pro Max will feature a refreshed color palette including Obsidian Black, dark purple, light blue, and silver.
• The Dynamic Island will be reduced by about one-third in size.
• The device will use a new LTPO Plus display with adaptive refresh rates and improved brightness.
• Frosted ceramic glass back offers enhanced durability and grip.

Defying industry trends with a price freeze

Rising memory costs have forced many Android manufacturers to raise prices, and analysts predict the Android market may shrink this year as some budget models are canceled. Yet Apple is preparing to hold the line on its flagship iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max base prices, according to analyst Jeff Pu. In a research note, Pu forecasts an 'aggressive pricing strategy' for the base models, keeping them at $1,099 and $1,199 respectively. This aligns with earlier predictions from Ming-Chi Kuo that Apple aims to maintain entry-level pricing. The move could help Apple gain market share from Android, a trend already observed in early 2025.

Margins protected by tiered pricing

To offset the cost of memory and other components, Apple is expected to raise prices on higher storage configurations. This tiered approach allows the company to avoid a significant hit to its margins while keeping the most affordable models accessible. The strategy mirrors Apple's past behavior, where base models serve as a gateway, and higher storage options generate additional revenue. With the iPhone Ultra model also on the horizon, Apple is creating a clear price ladder that could push average selling prices upward.

Design overhaul: colors, display, and materials

The iPhone 18 Pro Max will introduce a refreshed color palette, bringing back Obsidian Black alongside dark purple, light blue, and silver. The return of a classic black shade caters to users seeking a sophisticated look, while lighter tones offer a modern appeal. The device will feature a new LTPO Plus display, offering enhanced brightness, improved energy efficiency, and adaptive refresh rates for smoother scrolling. The Dynamic Island is also being refined, with its size reduced by approximately one-third to provide more usable screen space. The back panel will use frosted ceramic glass, combining durability with a premium, grippy finish.

A20 Pro chip and performance expectations

Under the hood, the iPhone 18 Pro Max is expected to be powered by the A20 Pro chip, promising next-level performance. While specific benchmarks are not yet available, the chip is likely built on a more advanced process node, delivering gains in speed and efficiency. This performance upgrade, combined with the LTPO Plus display and improved camera system, positions the device as a significant leap over its predecessor. The variable aperture camera, though not detailed in the leaks, is expected to enhance low-light photography and depth control.

Market implications and the Ultra model

Apple's pricing strategy comes at a time when the broader smartphone market faces headwinds from rising component costs. By freezing base prices, Apple may pressure Android rivals, potentially accelerating market share shifts. The introduction of the iPhone Ultra, a higher-end tier, suggests Apple is segmenting its lineup to capture both value-conscious and premium buyers. The Ultra model is expected to carry a higher price tag, but its exact positioning remains unclear. Analysts will be watching closely to see how consumers respond to the expanded lineup.

What comes next

The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are expected to be unveiled this fall alongside the iPhone Ultra. As launch approaches, more details on camera specifications, battery life, and software features are likely to emerge. For now, Apple's aggressive pricing on base models signals a deliberate effort to maintain competitiveness in a challenging market. Whether this strategy will succeed in boosting market share while preserving margins will depend on consumer demand and the broader economic environment.

The bottom line

• Apple is expected to keep iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max base prices unchanged at $1,099 and $1,199 despite rising memory costs.
• Higher storage tiers may see price increases to protect Apple's margins.
• The iPhone 18 Pro Max will feature a refreshed color palette, smaller Dynamic Island, LTPO Plus display, and frosted ceramic glass back.
• The A20 Pro chip is expected to deliver significant performance improvements.
• Apple is also preparing an iPhone Ultra model, expanding its premium lineup.
• The pricing strategy aims to gain market share from Android, especially as Android manufacturers raise prices.