Putin and Zelenskyy Declare Rival Ceasefires as Moscow Prepares for Victory Day Parade

Key facts

• Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8–9 for Victory Day; Ukraine announced a separate ceasefire from May 5–6.
• Russian defence ministry threatened a 'massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv' if its truce demand is not met.
• Zelenskyy said Ukraine will 'act symmetrically' and gave no end time for its ceasefire.
• Moscow's Victory Day parade will lack tanks and missiles for the first time in nearly two decades.
• A Ukrainian drone hit a high-rise building five miles from Red Square ahead of the celebrations.
• TsMAKP cut Russia's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5–0.7% from 0.9–1.3% a month ago.
• Russia's economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2026, its first quarterly contraction since early 2023.
• A Russian missile strike killed seven and wounded over 30 in Merefa, Kharkiv region, on Monday.

Rival Truce Declarations Set Stage for Tense Week

Russia and Ukraine have declared competing unilateral ceasefires, each with different timelines and conditions, as Moscow prepares for its annual Victory Day parade marking the 81st anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat. The Russian defence ministry announced a ceasefire from May 8 to May 9, demanding that Ukraine halt all hostilities to allow the parade to proceed safely. Kyiv responded with its own ceasefire beginning at midnight on May 5–6, with no specified end date, offering what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as a potentially open-ended truce if Russia reciprocates. The duelling declarations follow a pattern of unilateral ceasefires announced by Russia, most recently around Orthodox Easter, which have had little impact on the ground. This time, however, the stakes are higher: the Russian defence ministry threatened a 'massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv' if its truce demand is not met, a threat condemned as a potential war crime and reminiscent of recent US warnings to Iran.

Zelenskyy Challenges Kremlin to Take Real Steps Toward Peace

Zelenskyy initially dismissed the Russian request as 'not serious', but later stated that while Kyiv had received no official notice from Moscow, it was 'realistic to ensure' a ceasefire takes effect by Wednesday. 'We announce a regime of silence starting from 00.00 on the night of May 5 to May 6,' he said, adding that Ukraine would 'act symmetrically' based on Russian actions. He noted that Russia had failed to respond to Kyiv's longstanding calls for a lasting ceasefire and urged the Kremlin 'to take real steps to end their war, especially since Russia's defence ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine's goodwill.' Speaking at a summit of the European Political Community in Armenia, Zelenskyy said Russian authorities 'fear drones may buzz over Red Square' on May 9, a reference to a recent Ukrainian drone attack on a high-rise building five miles from the square. 'This is telling. It shows they are not strong now, so we must keep up the pressure through sanctions on them,' he added.

Economic Strain Deepens as Ukrainian Drone Attacks Hit Oil Infrastructure

High global oil prices will not boost Russian economic growth this year, according to the influential think tank TsMAKP, which is close to the Russian government. Analysts there cut their 2026 GDP growth forecast to between 0.5% and 0.7%, down from 0.9% to 1.3% just a month ago, citing risks from Ukrainian drone attacks on port infrastructure and oil refineries, as well as Western sanctions. The Russian government officially forecasts 1.3% growth, but officials have said this is optimistic and will be revised; new forecasts are expected later this month. Russia's economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026, its first quarterly contraction since early 2023. In April, Russia was forced to reduce oil output due to Ukrainian drone strikes—what Kyiv calls 'kinetic sanctions'—and a halt to crude supplies through the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe. TsMAKP expects a reduction in Russian exports this year compared to 2025.

Casualties Mount on Both Sides as Fighting Continues

Despite the ceasefire declarations, hostilities continued on Monday. A Russian missile attack killed seven people and wounded more than 30 in the town of Merefa, in Ukraine's north-eastern Kharkiv region. Regional prosecutors said Russian forces appeared to have used an Iskander-type ballistic missile. In the southern Zaporizhzhia region, a Russian strike killed a husband and wife in the village of Vilnyansk; their adult son and three others were wounded. On the Russian side, Belgorod region Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a Ukrainian drone killed a civilian in a border area and wounded seven others, including a 10-year-old boy. In the Kyiv region, a Russian drone hit an apartment building in Brovary, injuring two people, according to the head of the regional military administration.

UK Seeks to Join EU Loan Scheme for Ukraine; IAEA Reports Damage at Nuclear Plant

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the benefit of joining the European Union's £78 billion loan scheme for Ukraine 'outweighs the cost', as he used the European Political Community meeting in Armenia to begin negotiations for UK participation. If successful, British defence firms would be able to provide equipment for Kyiv in return for a financial contribution of up to £400 million. Starmer argued that Europe must move quickly to bolster its own defence. Separately, the on Monday that weather monitoring equipment at the illegally Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in south-eastern Ukraine was damaged in a drone strike. The incident raises renewed concerns about nuclear safety at Europe's largest nuclear plant, which has been under Russian control since early in the war.

Outlook: Ceasefire Prospects Hinge on Mutual Trust and External Pressure

The rival ceasefire declarations underscore the deep mistrust between the two sides. Russia's demand for a two-day halt to hostilities for Victory Day is seen by Kyiv as a tactical move to secure the parade, while Ukraine's open-ended offer challenges Moscow to match its words with action. The threat of a massive missile strike on Kyiv if the truce is not observed adds a coercive dimension, raising the risk of escalation. Zelenskyy's reference to Russia's 'fear' of drones over Red Square highlights a shift in the conflict's dynamics, with Ukraine increasingly able to strike deep inside Russian territory. Meanwhile, economic pressures—including falling GDP and reduced oil exports—may influence Russia's calculus. The coming days will test whether either side is willing to translate ceasefire declarations into sustained de-escalation, or whether the pattern of unilateral truces with little impact will continue.

The bottom line

• Russia and Ukraine declared competing ceasefires: Russia for May 8–9, Ukraine from May 5–6 with no end date.
• Russia threatened a massive missile strike on Kyiv if its truce demand is not met, a move condemned as a potential war crime.
• Ukraine's ceasefire offer is open-ended and conditional on reciprocal Russian action, but Moscow has not officially responded.
• Russia's economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 2026, and TsMAKP cut GDP growth forecast to 0.5–0.7% due to drone attacks and sanctions.
• A Ukrainian drone hit a building near Red Square, prompting Moscow to cancel tanks and missiles from Victory Day parade for first time in decades.
• Fighting continued on Monday, with Russian strikes killing seven in Merefa and Ukrainian drones killing one in Belgorod.