Sinn Féin Slips as Micheál Martin Rises: Irish Polls Show Shifting Landscape

Key facts

• Micheál Martin is the most popular party leader according to the February 2026 Irish Times-Ipsos B&A poll.
• Support for government parties (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Green Party) holds steady in the same poll.
• Sinn Féin support has slumped since spring 2025, per the July 2025 Irish Times-Ipsos B&A poll.
• Catherine Connolly won the 2025 presidential election with 63.36% of the vote, the highest margin for an independent candidate.
• The Irish Polling Indicator, maintained by Stefan Müller and Tom Louwerse, aggregates all Dáil opinion polls since 2014.
• By-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West are scheduled for 22 May 2026.
• The 2024 general election was held on 29 November 2024, and the Irish Polling Indicator estimates were the most accurate since 1989.
• Independent Ireland is now tracked as a separate party in the Polling Indicator, distinct from 'Independent/Others'.

A Resurgent Taoiseach and a Fragmented Opposition

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has emerged as the most popular political leader in Ireland, according to the latest Irish Times-Ipsos B&A poll from February 2026, as support for the governing coalition holds steady. The poll marks a reversal of fortune for Martin, who had seen his ratings dip amid earlier controversies. Sinn Féin, the main opposition party led by Mary Lou McDonald, has seen its support fall, reflecting a broader fragmentation of the electorate. The survey, conducted by Ipsos B&A for The Irish Times, shows that the coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party is maintaining its grip on power, with no significant erosion of support. This stability comes despite ongoing debates over housing targets and a scandal surrounding speaking rights in the Dáil. The opposition, meanwhile, is scattered, with Sinn Féin losing ground to smaller parties and independents.

Sinn Féin's Slump and the Rise of Independents

Sinn Féin's decline has been evident since the spring of 2025, as documented by the July 2025 Irish Times-Ipsos B&A poll. The party, which advocates for Irish reunification and social justice, has seen its support slump, while dissatisfied voters are moving not towards the left but to independents and other minor parties. This trend was underscored by the 2025 presidential election, where independent candidate Catherine Connolly won a landslide victory with 63.36% of the vote, the highest margin for an independent in Irish presidential history. Connolly, a socialist critic of NATO and the EU, campaigned on an anti-government platform, tapping into widespread discontent. Her victory was described by pollsters as requiring 'only an earthquake' to prevent, given her commanding 18-point lead in the final week. The result signals a growing appetite for alternatives to the established party system.

Coalition Stability Amidst Policy Debates

The government parties—Fianna Fáil (centrist, led by Micheál Martin), Fine Gael (centre-right, led by Simon Harris), and the Green Party (environmental, led by Roderic O'Gorman)—have maintained their support levels despite heated debates over housing targets and the Dáil speaking rights scandal. The coalition formed after the November 2024 general election, which saw the most accurate opinion poll estimates since 1989, according to the Irish Polling Indicator. The Polling Indicator, a project launched in 2014 and maintained by Stefan Müller and Tom Louwerse, aggregates all Dáil opinion polls into ranges of likely support. It is used by major outlets including The Guardian, Reuters, the Financial Times, and RTÉ News. The indicator now tracks Independent Ireland as a separate party, reflecting its growing significance.

By-Elections and the Road Ahead

By-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West are scheduled for 22 May 2026, providing an early test of the political mood. Stefan Müller, co-maintainer of the Irish Polling Indicator, published an article on RTÉ News ahead of these votes, offering historical context on by-elections in Ireland over the past century. The results will be closely watched as a barometer of public sentiment towards the government and opposition. Seven months after the 2024 general election, and about a month before the Dáil recess, the political landscape remains fluid. The Polling Indicator's latest estimates, based on polls up to the end of June, show a fragmented electorate with no single party commanding a majority. The next general election, due by early 2029, could see further shifts as new parties and independents consolidate their support.

The Polling Indicator's Track Record

The Irish Polling Indicator has established itself as a reliable tool for tracking public opinion, with its final estimates before the 2024 general election proving the most accurate of any Irish election since 1989. The project, which began in 2014, combines data from multiple polling firms, applying Bayesian credible intervals to produce a 95% probability range for each party's support. It only includes parties consistently tracked by all pollsters, ensuring consistency. The indicator's methodology accounts for 'house effects'—systematic biases in how different pollsters estimate support for each party. These effects are displayed graphically, showing, for example, that some pollsters structurally overestimate Sinn Féin while underestimating Fine Gael. The raw data and aggregated estimates are available for download, promoting transparency.

A New Political Landscape

The 2025 presidential election, won by Catherine Connolly with a historic margin, has reshaped Irish politics. Connolly's victory as an independent, anti-establishment candidate reflects a broader trend of voter disillusionment with traditional parties. The Irish Polling Indicator now classifies Independent Ireland as a separate entity, acknowledging its emergence as a significant force, particularly in rural areas. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats (led by Holly Cairns), Labour (Ivana Bacik), Aontú (Peadar Tóibín), and People Before Profit-Solidarity are vying for influence on the left and centre-left. The Green Party, despite being in government, faces challenges from environmental voters who may feel its agenda has been diluted. The coming months, including the by-elections, will reveal whether the current coalition can maintain its cohesion or whether new alliances will form.

Outlook: Fragmentation and Uncertainty

Ireland's political landscape is more fragmented than at any point in recent memory, with no single party commanding more than a quarter of the vote. The stability of the current coalition masks underlying volatility, as voters shift between parties and independents. The by-elections in May 2026 will be a critical test, potentially triggering further realignments. The Irish Polling Indicator's continuous tracking will provide essential data as the next general election approaches. For now, Micheál Martin's personal popularity offers a buffer for the government, but the underlying trends suggest that the era of dominant parties may be giving way to a more fluid, multi-party system. The question is whether this fragmentation will lead to more responsive governance or chronic instability.

The bottom line

• Micheál Martin is the most popular leader, but support for government parties is steady, not growing.
• Sinn Féin has lost support since spring 2025, with voters moving to independents rather than left-wing parties.
• Catherine Connolly's 2025 presidential win with 63.36% underscores anti-establishment sentiment.
• The Irish Polling Indicator, maintained by Stefan Müller and Tom Louwerse, is a key resource for tracking political trends.
• By-elections on 22 May 2026 in Dublin Central and Galway West will test the political mood.
• The 2024 general election saw the most accurate polls since 1989, according to the Polling Indicator.