Toronto Maple Leafs win NHL draft lottery, land franchise-altering prospect Gavin McKenna

Key facts

• Toronto Maple Leafs won the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft with an 8.5 percent chance.
• San Jose Sharks jumped from No. 9 to No. 2, winning the second draw.
• The 2026 NHL Draft will take place in Buffalo, N.Y., on June 26 and 27.
• Gavin McKenna, a left winger from Penn State (NCAA), is projected as the top pick.
• Ivar Stenberg (LW, Frölunda, SHL) is projected at No. 2 for the Sharks.
• Caleb Malhotra (C, Brantford, OHL) is projected at No. 3 for the Vancouver Canucks.
• Carson Carels (LHD, Prince George, WHL) is projected at No. 4 for the Chicago Blackhawks.

A lottery for the ages

The Toronto Maple Leafs defied 8.5 percent odds to win the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, a moment that analysts are comparing to the Dallas Mavericks landing Cooper Flagg or the Cleveland Cavaliers drafting LeBron James. The lottery, held Tuesday night, reshuffled the draft order and gave the Leafs the right to select Gavin McKenna, a left winger from Penn State widely regarded as a franchise-altering talent. For a team coming off its worst season in recent memory, the windfall offers more than just a top prospect. It provides a potential long-term partner for Auston Matthews, a boost to a beleaguered fanbase, and a chance to rebuild momentum. The San Jose Sharks, meanwhile, jumped from No. 9 to No. 2, winning the second draw and securing a high-end forward in Ivar Stenberg.

The McKenna factor

Gavin McKenna, a left winger for Penn State in the NCAA, is the consensus top prospect in the draft. Scouts describe him as a player who can instantly improve the Leafs' offense and potentially convince Matthews to stay long-term. The organization, according to reporters covering the team, views McKenna as the silver lining after a miserable season. McKenna's skill set — speed, scoring touch, and hockey IQ — makes him a natural fit alongside Matthews. The Leafs' front office has not commented on their draft strategy, but the pick is widely expected to be McKenna. If he delivers on his promise, Toronto could return to contention faster than anticipated.

Sharks, Canucks, and Blackhawks round out top four

With the No. 2 pick, the San Jose Sharks are projected to select Ivar Stenberg, a left winger from Frölunda in the SHL. General manager Mike Grier has stated that the team will take the best player available, and Stenberg's high-end talent fits that philosophy. The Sharks have a surplus of skilled forwards, which could make William Eklund a trade asset to address defensive needs. At No. 3, the Vancouver Canucks face a choice between OHL standouts Chase Reid and Caleb Malhotra. Malhotra, a 6-foot-2 centre from Brantford, has drawn comparisons to Jonathan Toews for his two-way play and late-season offensive surge. The Chicago Blackhawks, picking fourth, would likely target Carson Carels, a left-handed defenseman from Prince George, if the top forwards are gone. Carels brings size, physicality, and a hard shot, potentially pairing with Artyom Levshunov or Sam Rinzel.

Comparisons to historic lottery wins

The Leafs' lottery victory has drawn comparisons to the NBA's most famous draft moments. When the Dallas Mavericks won the lottery for Cooper Flagg months after trading Luka Doncic, or when the Cleveland Cavaliers landed LeBron James, the hometown kid, the league faced accusations of rigging. Similarly, the Chicago Bulls got Derrick Rose, and the New York Knicks landed Patrick Ewing. Now Toronto, a Canadian team with a massive fanbase, gets the young Canadian McKenna. The coincidence — a struggling Original Six franchise winning the top pick in a year with a Canadian star — has sparked debate. But for the Leafs, the result is unequivocal: a chance to reshape their future.

What comes next

The 2026 NHL Draft will be held in Buffalo, N.Y., on June 26 and 27. The Leafs are expected to officially select McKenna with the first pick, though trades could alter the board. The Sharks, Canucks, and Blackhawks will follow, with several high-end defensemen available later in the first round. For Toronto, the immediate question is how McKenna fits into the lineup next season. His NCAA experience suggests he could make an immediate impact, potentially slotting onto the top line. The organization's ability to build around him and Matthews will determine whether this lottery win translates into sustained success.

The bottom line

• Toronto Maple Leafs won the No. 1 pick with an 8.5 percent chance, a historic lottery upset.
• Gavin McKenna, a left winger from Penn State, is the projected top pick and expected to be a franchise cornerstone.
• San Jose Sharks jumped to No. 2 and will likely select Ivar Stenberg, a Swedish winger.
• Vancouver Canucks and Chicago Blackhawks round out the top four, with Caleb Malhotra and Carson Carels as top prospects.
• The draft will take place June 26-27 in Buffalo, N.Y.
• The Leafs' win draws parallels to NBA lottery moments like the Mavericks landing Cooper Flagg.