China: what's happening and what it means

Starting May 1, China will roll out its zero-tariff policy for all 53 African countries with diplomatic relations. China has emerged this Friday as one of the stories drawing attention in Kenya.

Key facts

• Starting May 1, China will roll out its zero-tariff policy for all 53 African countries with diplomatic relations.
• The zero-tariff regime gives China's soft power a boost, but may lead to uneven gains, say analysts.
• China will scrap tariffs for all African countries from Friday – except Eswatini, which maintains ties with Taiwan.
• As of December 2024, China had already implemented a duty-free policy for 33 least-developed African nations.
• Last year, Africa's trade deficit with China rose by 65% to about $102bn.

What we know

Going deeper, the zero-tariff regime gives China's soft power a boost, but may lead to uneven gains, say analysts.

On the substance, China will scrap tariffs for all African countries from Friday – except Eswatini, which maintains ties with Taiwan.

Beyond the headlines, as of December 2024, China had already implemented a duty-free policy for 33 least-developed African nations.

More precisely, Last year, Africa's trade deficit with China rose by 65% to about $102bn.

It is worth noting that the landlocked nation in southern Africa is among just 12 countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province that will eventually be "reunited" with China.

By the numbers

At this stage, For 43-year-old Sandra Mbah, a second-generation cocoa farmer, also sees China's upcoming zero-tariff policy as a major opportunity.

On a related note, the policy now covers 53 countries, and will be in place until 30 April 2028.

Going deeper, the US had hit some African nations with tariffs of up to 30% in August, although most are now subject to a 10% tariff, after the US Supreme Court struck down many of the duties.

On the substance, For instance, Chinese consumers are buying far more coffee and nuts than they did 20 years ago.

The wider context

On a related note, But analysts say that while China is seizing the chance to enhance its soft power, they point out that tariffs are rarely the main obstacle for exporters in Africa which has a huge trade deficit with China.

Going deeper, China is positioning itself as the trade liberaliser and Africa-friendly economic partner, in contrast to Donald Trump and the US," says Lauren Johnston, a senior research fellow at the AustChina Institute.

On the substance, the expansion of China's zero-tariff regime could increase African agricultural exports, which will "help to elevate rural incomes, improve rural productivity, and ultimately to reduce hunger and poverty", Johnston says.

Beyond the headlines, But Sino-African trade is marked by a growing imbalance in China's favour, which means Chinese exports to Africa far exceed African exports to China, and that difference is widening.

More precisely, Africa's exports to China are dominated by minerals and raw materials, such as crude oil and metallic ores.

The bottom line

• The zero-tariff regime gives China's soft power a boost, but may lead to uneven gains, say analysts.
• As of December 2024, China had already implemented a duty-free policy for 33 least-developed African nations.
• The landlocked nation in southern Africa is among just 12 countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a breakaway province that will eventually be "reunited" with China.
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