Nacional’s Late Surge Nears Safety as AVS Face Relegation After Woeful Campaign

Key facts

• Nacional beat Tondela 2-0 on April 24, their first away win in 14 attempts since October.
• Jesus Ramirez scored his third goal in four games; an own goal by Brayan Medina doubled the lead.
• Nacional have 31 points from 31 matches, 14th place, five points above 16th-placed Casa Pia.
• AVS have won only one league game all season, lost 19, scored a league-low 22 goals, conceded 65.
• AVS drew 1-1 with Sporting Lisbon on April 25; Pedro Lima’s 66th-minute penalty cancelled Rafael Nel’s opener.
• Nacional are unbeaten in their last five meetings with AVS (three wins, two draws) since November 2023.
• Injuries sideline Lucas Franca (thigh), Ivanildo Fernandes (muscle), and Ulisses (collarbone) for Nacional.

Nacional’s Revival Lifts Them Clear of Danger

Nacional are on the verge of securing their Primeira Liga status after a dramatic turnaround in form. A run of three victories in their last four matches — against Estrela Amadora, Alverca, and Tondela — has propelled Tiago Margarido’s side to 14th place with 31 points, five points above the relegation playoff spot occupied by Casa Pia. The only blemish in that stretch was a 2-0 loss to title-chasers Benfica on April 12. The most recent win, a 2-0 triumph at Tondela on April 24, ended a 14-match winless streak away from home across all competitions dating back to October. Jesus Ramirez opened the scoring midway through the first half, netting his third goal in four appearances, before Colombian defender Brayan Medina turned the ball into his own net in the 31st minute to double Nacional’s advantage. The result was built on a solid team display that has become the hallmark of their late-season surge.

AVS’s Brief Top-Flight Stint Ends in Disappointment

AVS are heading back to the second tier after just two seasons in the Primeira Liga. Their relegation was confirmed with three matches remaining, capping a campaign that yielded only one league win and 19 defeats from 31 games. The team has scored a league-low 22 goals and conceded 65 — five more than any other side in the division. Manager João Henriques’s side produced one of their few bright moments on April 25, fighting back to earn a 1-1 draw against title-contenders Sporting Lisbon at the Estádio do CD das Aves. After a goalless first half, Sporting’s Rafael Nel broke the deadlock two minutes into the second period, but Pedro Lima converted a 66th-minute penalty to salvage a point and dent the Leoes’ title hopes. Despite that spirited display, AVS have not won away from home all season and have failed to beat Nacional in their last five meetings, losing three and drawing two since November 2023.

Key Figures and Tactical Trends

Nacional’s resurgence has been driven by the form of striker Jesus Ramirez, who has scored three goals in his last four games. The team’s defensive solidity has also improved: after going eight matches without a win between February 1 and March 21, they have kept two clean sheets in their recent victories. The 2-0 win over Tondela was particularly notable for ending a 14-match away winless run. AVS’s struggles are reflected in their league-worst goal difference of -43. They have scored just 22 goals — the lowest in the division — and conceded 65, a defensive record that has been the worst in the league. Their only league win remains a distant memory, and they have failed to secure a single away victory this season. The team’s inability to hold leads has been a recurring issue, as seen in the Sporting Lisbon match where they conceded an equalizer after taking the lead.

Injury Concerns and Team News Ahead of Clash

Nacional will be without several key players for Saturday’s match at the Estádio da Madeira. Lucas Franca is sidelined with a thigh injury, Ivanildo Fernandes is out with a muscle problem, and Brazilian defender Ulisses is unavailable due to a collarbone injury. There have been no positive updates on their recovery, leaving Tiago Margarido with a depleted squad. AVS, meanwhile, have no fresh injury concerns reported, but the team’s morale is likely low after a season of heavy defeats. With relegation already confirmed, Henriques may rotate his squad to give younger players experience in the final three games. The match represents an opportunity for AVS to end their season on a positive note, but their poor record against Nacional and lack of away wins suggest a difficult task.

Historical Context and Stakes for Both Sides

Nacional are aiming to extend their two-year stay in the top flight after earning promotion in 2024. Their current position — five points above the relegation playoff spot — means a win against AVS would all but guarantee safety with two games remaining. The team’s late-season form has been a stark contrast to their earlier struggles, when they went eight matches without a win. AVS, by contrast, are facing an immediate return to the second tier. They narrowly avoided relegation last season by defeating Vizela in the playoff, but this campaign has been far worse. Their brief two-year stint in the Primeira Liga will end with a whimper unless they can produce a miracle in their remaining fixtures. The match against Nacional is also a chance to avoid setting a new club record for fewest points in a top-flight season.

What Comes Next: Final Three Matches Hold Key Questions

For Nacional, the priority is to secure the points needed to avoid any late drama. With matches against AVS and then two other opponents, they have the opportunity to finish the season strongly and build momentum for next year. The team’s improved form under Margarido has raised hopes that they can establish themselves as a mid-table side. AVS, already relegated, will play their remaining games with pride at stake. They will look to spoil Nacional’s party and perhaps end their season with a rare win. The club’s focus will soon shift to rebuilding for the second division, where they will aim to mount an immediate promotion challenge. For now, the Estadio da Madeira clash offers a final chance for AVS to show fight before their top-flight exit.

The bottom line

• Nacional have won three of their last four matches, moving five points clear of the relegation playoff zone.
• Jesus Ramirez has scored three goals in four games, key to Nacional’s survival push.
• AVS are relegated after winning just one league match all season, with a league-worst goal difference of -43.
• AVS have not won away from home this season and are winless in their last five meetings with Nacional.
• Nacional face injury absences for Lucas Franca, Ivanildo Fernandes, and Ulisses ahead of the match.
• The match on Saturday could mathematically secure Nacional’s safety, while AVS play for pride in their final top-flight games.