Anz Business Confidence Survey April: everything we know so far

The bank's latest business outlook survey shows headline confidence dropped from a net 32.5 percent in March to minus 10.6 percent in April. Anz Business Confidence Survey April has emerged this Friday as one of the stories drawing attention in New Zealand.

Key facts

• The bank's latest business outlook survey shows headline confidence dropped from a net 32.5 percent in March to minus 10.6 percent in April.
• ANZ’s Business Outlook Survey showed confidence fell from 32.5 in March to -10.6 in April.
• ANZ business confidence survey warns of ‘wall of worry’, uncertainty likely to put some hiring and investment decisions 'on ice.
• Business confidence took a hit over the last month with ANZ’s latest business outlook warning of a “wall of worry” as confidence fell in April.
• Unsettling times for businesses' as confidence falls 31 Mar 2026 Business confidence has dived as firms continue to digest the implications of the war in Iran, mirroring last week's consumer confidence survey. 'Unsettling times for businesses' as confidence falls.

What we know

Going deeper, ANZ’s Business Outlook Survey showed confidence fell from 32.5 in March to -10.6 in April.

On the substance, ANZ business confidence survey warns of ‘wall of worry’, uncertainty likely to put some hiring and investment decisions 'on ice.

Beyond the headlines, Business confidence took a hit over the last month with ANZ’s latest business outlook warning of a “wall of worry” as confidence fell in April.

More precisely, Unsettling times for businesses' as confidence falls 31 Mar 2026 Business confidence has dived as firms continue to digest the implications of the war in Iran, mirroring last week's consumer confidence survey. 'Unsettling times for businesses' as confidence falls.

It is worth noting that Business confidence slumped again in May, according to the latest ANZ survey.

By the numbers

At this stage, Last week, NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for the March quarter showed just a net 1% of firms expecting an improvement in economic conditions in the coming months, down from a net 39% in the December quarter.

On a related note, Households closing their wallets as consumer confidence falls 27 Mar 2026 Consumers were caught in a perfect storm in March, hit by higher fuel prices and rising mortgage rates.

Going deeper, Fuel escalation level likely to rise, and it should - expert 30 Mar 2026 It comes as supply chain data shows the last shipments of fuel from Gulf Oil for New Zealand are likely to arrive on 20 April.

On the substance, it comes as supply chain data shows the last shipments of fuel from Gulf Oil for New Zealand are likely to arrive on 20 April.

What they're saying

“But although the charts are ugly, many activity indicators were actually higher this month than in the late-month responses received last month, suggesting some of the initial confidence shock has dissipated.”

“That implies a degree of expected margin squeeze similar to 2022,” Zollner said.

“Firms are understandably concerned about the outlook for their activity and profitability in the face of this significant cost shock,” she said.

The wider context

On a related note, Business confidence has slumped into negative territory, as firms face weaker activity and rising cost pressures, ANZ says.

Going deeper, Business confidence has dived as firms continue to digest the implications of the war in Iran, mirroring last week's consumer confidence survey.

On the substance, there are signs that the initial confidence shock has dissipated, an ANZ economist says.

Beyond the headlines, Chief economist Sharon Zollner said buried in the data was the detail that responses were weaker in late March than early April, suggesting businesses may be adapting to the shock - but it was still a "precipitous fall either way.

More precisely, ANZ described the environment as a significant cost shock for businesses, but firms appear reluctant - or unable - to fully pass those higher costs on, increasing pressure on margins.

The bottom line

• There are signs that the initial confidence shock has dissipated, an ANZ economist says.
• Zollner said the survey had not altered ANZ's forecast for the Reserve Bank to begin raising interest rates in July, even as firms and households continue to face rising costs.
• But if it is any consolation, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner highlighted that the slump was not quite as pronounced as the responses recorded in the last week of the March survey.
• Searches spiking right now: Confidence slumps, costs surge as businesses face ‘perfect storm’, ANZ survey shows, ANZ warns of ‘wall of worry’ as business confidence falls, inflation expectations rise, NZ business confidence crashes to -10.6 in April as cost shock rattles outlook - more, 'Ugly' – business confidence falls again but hopes war shock may be easing.