BJP on Course to Oust Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal as Actor Vijay Reshapes Tamil Nadu Politics

Key facts

• BJP leads in 201 seats in West Bengal, crossing the majority mark of 148 in the 294-seat assembly.
• Trinamool Congress leads in 85 seats, a sharp decline from its 2021 performance.
• Actor Vijay's TVK leads in over 100 seats in Tamil Nadu, pushing DMK to third place with leads in 50 seats.
• AIADMK-led alliance leads in 71 seats in Tamil Nadu.
• Congress-led UDF is set to form government in Kerala, ahead of the Left front.
• BJP is on course to win two seats in Kerala, a symbolic breakthrough.
• NDA retains power in Puducherry, with CM N. Rangasamy retaining his seat.
• BJP set to retain power in Assam, securing a third straight term.

Historic Breakthrough in Bengal

The Bharatiya Janata Party is on course to achieve a historic breakthrough in West Bengal, leading in 201 seats as counting continues, according to election trends. The ruling Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, trails with leads in 85 seats, a dramatic reversal after a decade in power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived at the BJP headquarters in Delhi wearing a dhoti to address party workers, celebrating what he called a historic victory. The BJP candidate defeated Trinamool's Shashi Panja in the Shyampukur constituency, and the party secured victory in 58 Bengal seats as of the latest updates. Mamata Banerjee, who has ruled the state since 2011, faces a major blow. She had previously waged a war against the Election Commission over the voter roll clean-up exercise known as Special Intensive Revision (SIR), which removed 89 lakh voters — roughly 11.6 per cent of the state's electorate, a figure slightly more than the winning margin of the Trinamool Congress in 2021.

Vijay's TVK Upends Tamil Nadu's Two-Party Order

In Tamil Nadu, actor-turned-politician Vijay has emerged as the breakout figure, with his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) leading in over 100 seats. The AIADMK-led alliance is leading in 71 seats, while the ruling DMK, in alliance with Congress and DMDK, has been pushed to third place with leads in 50 seats. Vijay waved at supporters after what is being described as a historic performance. Prime Minister Modi congratulated TVK on their impressive performance, stating, "The Centre will leave no stone unturned in furthering the progress of Tamil Nadu and the well-being of their people." The surge of TVK has dismantled the state's entrenched two-party order, putting incumbent Chief Minister MK Stalin under pressure. The results mark a significant realignment in Tamil Nadu politics.

Kerala Swings to Congress-Led UDF; BJP Makes Symbolic Gains

In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to form a new government, leading the Left Democratic Front in a state known for its cyclical political swings. The BJP is on course to win two seats, marking a modest yet symbolic breakthrough in a state where it has historically struggled. Prime Minister Modi congratulated the UDF on its victory, saying, "The Centre will always keep supporting the developmental aspirations of the people of Keralam." He also thanked those who voted for the BJP-NDA, vowing to keep raising issues vital to the state's progress.

Assam and Puducherry: BJP Consolidates Northeast, NDA Retains UT

In Assam, the BJP appears set to retain power, reinforcing its dominance in the northeast region. Union Home Minister Amit Shah congratulated the Assam BJP for its third straight win. Prime Minister Modi said, "BJP will keep working to transform Assam." In Puducherry, the NDA is set to retain power, with Chief Minister N. Rangasamy retaining his seat. Modi praised Rangasamy's leadership, stating, "Based on our track record of good governance and the work of the Government led by Shri N. Rangasamy, the people of Puducherry have blessed NDA with another term." The BJP candidate from Canning Purba in Bengal has demanded a repoll, though no further details have been provided.

Anti-Incumbency and Surprises Define Election Season

The election results across these states reveal a pattern of anti-incumbency and unexpected shifts. In West Bengal, the BJP's breakthrough comes after years of resistance, while in Tamil Nadu, the rise of a third force has upended expectations. Kerala's swing back to the Congress-led UDF continues its tradition of alternating between fronts. Taken together, these results suggest an interesting shift: the BJP is expanding into newer areas, while regional parties face unexpected challenges. The outcomes will have significant implications for national politics, as the BJP strengthens its footprint beyond its traditional strongholds.

Outlook: A Reshaped Political Landscape

As the final results are tallied, the political landscape of these states is being fundamentally reshaped. In West Bengal, the BJP's victory could lead to a new era of governance, while Mamata Banerjee's TMC faces an uncertain future. In Tamil Nadu, Vijay's TVK is poised to play a kingmaker role, potentially forming a coalition government. Prime Minister Modi, in his address, said, "Will do everything possible to fulfil dreams and aspirations," referring to the Bengal results. The coming days will reveal how these electoral shifts translate into policy and governance, with the Centre likely to play a more active role in states where the BJP has gained ground.

The bottom line

• BJP leads in 201 seats in West Bengal, poised to oust Mamata Banerjee's TMC after a decade in power.
• Actor Vijay's TVK leads in over 100 seats in Tamil Nadu, breaking the DMK-AIADMK duopoly.
• Congress-led UDF set to form government in Kerala, while BJP wins two seats symbolically.
• BJP retains power in Assam for a third term, and NDA holds Puducherry.
• Anti-incumbency drove results across states, with regional parties facing unexpected challenges.
• Prime Minister Modi congratulated winning parties and pledged support for development in all states.