Trump Ira : ce qu'il faut savoir

President Donald Trump’s maritime blockade is the latest attempt to test a thus far unproven theory of the Iran war Trump Ira s'impose comme l'un des sujets qui mobilisent l'attention en United States ce jeudi.

Les faits

• President Donald Trump’s maritime blockade is the latest attempt to test a thus far unproven theory of the Iran war — that superior US might will inevitably break the Islamic Republic.
• Trump says the US blockade of Iranian ports is working, urging Tehran to 'give up' amid tensions.
• United States President Donald Trump says Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been a success, urging Tehran to “just give up” as pressure mounts in a deepening standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Germany tensions: Trump said the US was considering reducing its troops in Germany over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s refusal to join Washington’s war against Iran – a force estimated between 35,000 and 50,000 troops.
• And Trump repeatedly claims Iran’s inability to export oil means it will have to halt production and risk huge damage to oil wells that could take years to fix.

L'essentiel

Dans le détail, Trump says the US blockade of Iranian ports is working, urging Tehran to 'give up' amid tensions.

Sur le fond, United States President Donald Trump says Washington’s blockade of Iranian ports has been a success, urging Tehran to “just give up” as pressure mounts in a deepening standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.

Concrètement, Germany tensions: Trump said the US was considering reducing its troops in Germany over Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s refusal to join Washington’s war against Iran – a force estimated between 35,000 and 50,000 troops.

Au-delà de ce constat, And Trump repeatedly claims Iran’s inability to export oil means it will have to halt production and risk huge damage to oil wells that could take years to fix.

Reste à préciser que Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that Trump’s team was the latest US administration to believe, wrongly, that a pressure campaign could force Iran to give in.

Les chiffres

À noter par ailleurs : the first is how long Trump, his fellow Republicans and the American people can take the rising costs of the war, including $4-plus gasoline and a likely rise in inflation.

Plus précisément, it endured a horrendous eight-year war with an estimated 1 million casualties against Iraq in the 1980s.

Dans la foulée, the regime’s entire ethos in the 47 years since the Islamic Revolution has been resistance to the US “Great Satan.” It might choose societal collapse over caving into Trump.

À ce stade, the US says cutting off exports will eventually push Iran’s storage to capacity, forcing output to stop, but analysts say remaining storage may cover only about 20 days of output.

Ce qui se dit

“The blockade is genius, OK?” Trump said Wednesday. “Their economy is in real trouble.

“The first thing to remember is that we’ve never been here before; this is uncharted territory,” Vatanka said. “The blockade is nothing Iran’s ever experienced, not even during the Iran-Iraq war.”

“There is that constant search for that silver bullet, that one point of pressure that causes the Iranians to either collapse, capitulate or just mend themselves to America’s wishes,” Parsi said. “And almost every time the US goes down that path, it ends up disappointing itself.”

Le contexte

Reste à préciser que Trump’s confidence also reflects another familiar Washington trend — a never-reconciled belief, especially prevalent among conservatives, that the Iranian economy and regime is perpetually about to collapse.

À noter par ailleurs : If Iran does so, Trump could break a futile cycle of history and finally end America’s near half-century duel with a bitter enemy.

Plus précisément, Putin-Trump talks: Russian President Vladimir Putin warned his US counterpart Donald Trump not to resume attacks on Iran.

Dans la foulée, Long blockade: Trump has told national security officials to prepare for a long blockade of Iran’s ports to compel Tehran to give up its nuclear programme, according to the Wall Street Journal.

À ce stade, Sticking points in US-Iran negotiations: The two sides remain divided over Iran’s nuclear programme and uranium stockpile, the US blockade, the release of $20bn in Iranian assets, and Tehran’s demand for $270bn in war reparations.

Recherches associées

Plusieurs requêtes connexes accompagnent ce sujet : EN DIRECT - Guerre au Moyen-Orient : le président iranien qualifie le blocus naval américain de «prolongement des opérations militaires» • EN DIRECT, guerre au Moyen-Orient : « L’Iran n’a qu’à capituler », affirme Donald Trump ; Israël menace le Hezbollah de frappes « au-delà de la ligne jaune » • PODCAST : Donald Trump : "récupérer l'uranium enrichi, coûte que coûte" – 30/04 • Guerre en Iran : Trump s’approche d’une date limite au Congrès • En direct : au Congrès, Pete Hegseth qualifie les législateurs démocrates de "défaitistes de bas étage" • Guerre au Moyen-Orient : le prix du baril de pétrole au plus haut depuis 2022.

À retenir

• The first is how long Trump, his fellow Republicans and the American people can take the rising costs of the war, including $4-plus gasoline and a likely rise in inflation.
• It endured a horrendous eight-year war with an estimated 1 million casualties against Iraq in the 1980s.
• The regime’s entire ethos in the 47 years since the Islamic Revolution has been resistance to the US “Great Satan.” It might choose societal collapse over caving into Trump.
• Recherches qui explosent : EN DIRECT - Guerre au Moyen-Orient : le président iranien qualifie le blocus naval américain de «prolongement des opérations militaires», EN DIRECT, guerre au Moyen-Orient : « L’Iran n’a qu’à capituler », affirme Donald Trump ; Israël menace le Hezbollah de frappes « au-delà de la ligne jaune », PODCAST : Donald Trump : "récupérer l'uranium enrichi, coûte que coûte" – 30/04, Guerre en Iran : Trump s’approche d’une date limite au Congrès.