Levante's Survival Hopes Hinge on Villarreal Test at Estadio de la Cerámica

Key facts

• Villarreal are third in La Liga with 65 points from 33 matches.
• Levante are 19th with 33 points, two points behind 17th-placed Mallorca.
• Villarreal have won four of their last seven league games, losing only once.
• Levante have lost one of their last eight matches, a 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad on April 4.
• Villarreal have the fourth-best home record, with 40 points from 16 games.
• Levante have lost nine of their 16 away matches this season.
• The reverse fixture ended 1-0 in favor of Villarreal.
• Villarreal goalkeeper Arnau Tenas has a save percentage of 69.6% in his career.

A Relegation Battle Reaches the Cerámica

Levante's fight to avoid relegation from La Liga reaches a critical juncture on Saturday when they travel to the Estadio de la Cerámica to face a Villarreal side that has all but secured a top-four finish. The Frogs, currently 19th in the table with 33 points from 33 matches, are two points adrift of 17th-placed Mallorca and three behind Alaves in 16th. A defeat could leave them cut adrift with only five games remaining. Villarreal, by contrast, sit third with 65 points, 15 ahead of fifth-placed Real Betis. Marcelino's side need only a minor slip from their rivals to mathematically guarantee a Champions League berth for next season, having already amassed a 21-point goal differential from 59 goals scored and 38 conceded. The Yellow Submarine have been dominant at home, collecting 40 points from 16 matches—the fourth-best home record in the division.

Villarreal's Momentum vs. Levante's Resilience

Villarreal enter the match on the back of a 2-1 victory over Celta Vigo, extending their run to four wins in their last seven league outings, with only one defeat in that span. Their overall record stands at 20 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, averaging 1.97 points per game. The team has recorded 8 clean sheets and 38 assists, ranking third among Big Five league clubs in the latter category. Levante, meanwhile, have shown signs of life in their relegation scrap. Luis Castro's side have taken seven points from their last three matches and have lost just once in their previous eight games—a 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad on April 4. Their most recent result, a goalless draw against Espanyol, kept them within touching distance of safety. However, their away form remains a concern: they have lost nine of 16 road fixtures and have a goal differential of -13, having conceded 50 goals while scoring 37.

Injury Concerns and Key Personnel

Villarreal will be without defenders Juan Foyth and Pau Cabanes due to injury, while Santiago Mourino is a major doubt for the clash. The likely starter in goal is Arnau Tenas, who has made 11 career appearances, recording 32 saves and conceding 16 goals for a save percentage of 69.6%. His clean sheet rate stands at 8.4%. For Levante, goalkeeper Mathew Ryan is expected to start. The Australian has 182 career starts, 544 saves, and 44 clean sheets, with a save percentage of 68.2% and a goals-against average of 1.46 per 90 minutes. Key attacking threats include Villarreal's Alberto Moleiro, who has 22 goals and 18 assists in 11,559 career minutes, and Levante's Ivan Romero, who has 22 goals and 9 assists in 7,621 minutes.

Historical Edge and Tactical Stakes

The historical record favors Villarreal, who have won nine of the previous 35 meetings between the sides in all competitions. The reverse fixture earlier this season ended 1-0 in favor of the Yellow Submarine. Levante, who won last season's Segunda Division, have struggled to replicate that form in the top flight, with their 8-9-16 record reflecting a difficult campaign. Villarreal's expected goals (xG) stand at 18.3, while their expected goals against are 18.6, suggesting their defensive performance has been slightly better than average. Levante's xG is 20.5, but they have conceded 50 goals, indicating defensive frailties. The betting markets reflect Villarreal's favoritism, with odds of -210 compared to Levante's +172, and a total of 3 goals.

What the Numbers Reveal About Both Sides

Villarreal have accumulated 72 yellow cards and 3 red cards this season, while Levante have 76 yellow cards and 4 red cards. The home side have made 83 saves with a save rate of 66.4%, while Levante have 117 saves at a 69.3% rate. Villarreal's 38 assists and 59 goals highlight their attacking efficiency, while Levante's 22 assists and 37 goals show a less prolific offense. Villarreal's 8 clean sheets (24.2% of matches) match Levante's tally, but the visitors have faced 163 shots on target compared to Villarreal's 113, underscoring their defensive vulnerability. The Frogs' 1.52 goals conceded per 90 minutes is significantly higher than Villarreal's 1.15.

The Final Stretch: What Lies Ahead

With five matches remaining, Levante's path to survival requires points from a daunting fixture list. Saturday's match against a top-three side represents a severe test of their recent resilience. A win would lift them out of the relegation zone, while a loss could leave them four points adrift with only four games to play. For Villarreal, the match offers a chance to mathematically secure a top-four finish and turn attention to next season's Champions League, where they will aim to improve on a disappointing campaign that yielded just one point from eight league-stage fixtures. The Yellow Submarine's focus remains on finishing the season strongly, with Marcelino's side eager to build momentum for the 2026-27 tournament.

The bottom line

• Levante are two points from safety with five games left, facing a Villarreal side that has lost only once in seven league matches.
• Villarreal have the fourth-best home record in La Liga, while Levante have lost nine of 16 away games.
• Key injuries for Villarreal include Juan Foyth, Pau Cabanes, and Santiago Mourino (doubt).
• Villarreal's Arnau Tenas and Levante's Mathew Ryan are the expected starting goalkeepers.
• Villarreal have a historical edge with nine wins in 35 meetings, including a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture.
• Villarreal are priced at -210 favorites; the betting total is set at 3 goals.