Apple Earnings Preview: China, Tariffs, and CEO Succession in Focus

Key facts

• earnings after the bell on Thursday, with conference call at 5:00 pm ET.
• CEO Tim Cook to leave in September, replaced by hardware engineering SVP John Ternus.
• Traders place 98% odds Apple mentions China, 96% odds for tariffs on the call.
• Google's Gemini AI model has 27% chance of being mentioned; Apple lags in AI development.
• Smart glasses mention assigned 24% chance; foldable iPhone only 9% chance.
• foldable iPhone still on track for fall 2026 launch despite delays.
• Kalshi traders also speculate on Apple's creator studio and streaming platform discussion.

Earnings Call Amid Leadership Transition

its quarterly earnings after the closing bell on Thursday, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm Eastern Time. The announcement comes just over a week after the company disclosed that longtime chief executive Tim Cook will step down in September, to be succeeded by John Ternus, senior vice president of hardware engineering. This will be the first earnings call since the planned C-suite changes were unveiled, adding an extra layer of scrutiny to the proceedings. Investors will be listening for any signals about the company's strategic direction under new leadership.

China and Tariffs Dominate Trader Expectations

Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are nearly unanimous in expecting Apple to address two geopolitical flashpoints: China and tariffs. The odds of a mention of China stand at 98%, while tariffs are assigned a 96% likelihood. These expectations reflect the persistent challenges Apple faces in its second-largest market, where regulatory hurdles and supply chain complexities have weighed on performance. The company's exposure to US-China trade tensions makes tariffs a perennial concern.

AI Ambitions and the Google Gemini Deal

Traders see a 27% chance that Apple will discuss Google's artificial intelligence model, Gemini, which the company has integrated into its Apple Intelligence features. The partnership underscores Apple's efforts to catch up in the AI race, as Wall Street views the tech giant as the biggest laggard among megacap tech firms in AI development. A mention of its creator studio or streaming platform is also considered possible, though with lower probability. Apple has been investing in original content and services to diversify revenue beyond hardware.

Smart Glasses and Foldable iPhone: Low Odds

Apple has been working on an AI-supported smart glasses product for some time, traders assign only a 24% chance that the company will mention the wearable on the call. Similarly, the odds of any discussion about a foldable iPhone are just 9%. A report earlier this month suggested that the timeline for Apple's foldable iPhone development has been delayed. However, a separate report from Bloomberg indicates that a planned launch in fall 2026 remains on schedule, leaving room for future announcements.

Market Expectations and Stock Movement

Ahead of the earnings release, traders are also betting on the magnitude of Apple's stock price move. The options market implies a significant swing, reflecting the high stakes of this report amid a leadership transition and macroeconomic headwinds. Analysts will be parsing the results for signs of strength in Apple's core iPhone business, as well as growth in services and wearables. The company's ability to navigate the CEO succession smoothly will be a key theme in the quarters ahead.

The bottom line

• Apple's earnings call will be closely watched for commentary on China and tariffs, with near-certain odds from traders.
• The CEO transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus adds strategic uncertainty to the company's outlook.
• Apple's AI efforts, including the Gemini partnership, remain a focus as it trails competitors.
• Foldable iPhone and smart glasses are unlikely to be discussed, despite ongoing development.
• The stock is expected to see significant volatility following the earnings report.