AFP warns Mike Johnson: Republican Senate majority at risk unless cost-of-living becomes top priority

Key facts

• Americans for Prosperity Action issued an internal memo warning the Republican Senate majority is at risk.
• The memo was written by AFP senior adviser Emily Seidel and Executive Director Nathan Nascimento.
• The group says internal polling shows Democrats are now more trusted on the economy and inflation for the first time.
• A new survey found only 22% approve of Trump's and the GOP's handling of cost of living.
• The memo urges Republicans to focus every policy fight, floor speech, and campaign event on lowering costs for working families.
• The warning extends beyond the House fight that has dominated Republican concerns.
• The memo says the party's window to act is now and that every message should center on lowering costs.

A stark warning from a key ally

Americans for Prosperity Action, the political arm of the influential conservative network founded by the Koch brothers, has issued an internal memo warning that the Republican Senate majority is at risk heading into the November midterms. The memo, written by senior adviser Emily Seidel and Executive Director Nathan Nascimento, was shared with Politico and represents a significant alarm from a group that has spent heavily to elect Republicans. Seidel wrote bluntly: "As it stands today, our view is that the Republican Senate majority is at risk." The memo argues that the party's window to act is now, and it urges a relentless focus on driving costs down and keeping them low. The warning reaches beyond the House fight that has dominated Republican concerns, signaling that the Senate is equally vulnerable.

Democrats gain edge on the economy

The memo cites internal polling in several battleground states and one-on-one conversations with voters showing that, for the first time, Democrats are more trusted on the economy and inflation. This marks a dramatic shift from recent cycles where Republicans held a clear advantage on economic issues. A new survey found that only 22 percent approve of President Trump's and his party's handling of the cost of living, a dismal figure that underscores the depth of the problem. The group's data suggests that unless Republicans make cost of living the main issue in their campaign message and legislative work, the Senate majority could slip away. The memo does not offer a different path: it says the party's window to act is now, and that every message should center on lowering costs for working families.

A single-message strategy for the midterms

The memo instructs Republicans: "Every policy fight, every floor speech, every campaign event should answer one question—what are you doing to lower the cost of living for working families?" That directive gives campaigns and lawmakers a single, unified message to carry into battleground states where the group says Democrats are now trusted more on the economy and inflation. For Republicans, the immediate task is to show voters results on prices before November. The memo emphasizes that the party must demonstrate tangible action, not just rhetoric. The warning comes as House Speaker Mike Johnson faces his own challenges, but the AFP memo expands the scope of concern to the entire Republican congressional majority.

The stakes for the Senate majority

The memo explicitly links the fate of the Senate majority to the party's ability to address cost-of-living concerns. Americans for Prosperity Action has been a major donor to Republican Senate candidates, and its warning carries weight. The group's internal polling suggests that voters are increasingly skeptical of Republican economic stewardship, a trend that could tip close races in battleground states. The memo does not name specific senators or races, but its broad language applies to the entire Republican conference. The warning extends beyond the House fight that has dominated Republican concerns, indicating that the Senate is equally at risk if the party fails to pivot.

A call to action before November

The memo's authors, Seidel and Nascimento, stress that the window to act is now. They urge Republicans to focus every policy fight, floor speech, and campaign event on lowering costs for working families. The group's survey data shows that only 22 percent approve of the GOP's handling of cost of living, a figure that must improve if the party hopes to retain its Senate majority. The memo does not offer a different path: it says the party's window to act is now, and that every message should center on lowering costs for working families. For Republicans, the immediate task is to show voters results on prices before November.

Implications for the broader political landscape

The warning from Americans for Prosperity Action signals that the Republican Party's internal divisions over the House speakership and other issues may be distracting from the core economic concerns of voters. The memo's focus on cost of living suggests that the party's traditional strengths on the economy are eroding, and that Democrats have made inroads with working-class voters. The group's internal polling in several battleground states and one-on-one conversations with voters showed that, for the first time, Democrats are more trusted on the economy and inflation. This shift could have far-reaching consequences for the 2026 midterms and beyond, as both parties recalibrate their messages.

What comes next for Republicans

The memo leaves little room for ambiguity: Republicans must make cost of living the central issue of their campaign message and legislative work. The group's warning is a clear signal that the party's current strategy is insufficient. For Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate leadership, the challenge is to align their caucus around a unified economic message while also addressing internal disputes. The memo does not offer a different path: it says the party's window to act is now, and that every message should center on lowering costs for working families. Whether Republicans can heed this warning and shift their focus before November remains an open question.

The bottom line

• Americans for Prosperity Action warns the Republican Senate majority is at risk unless the party prioritizes cost of living.
• Internal polling shows Democrats are now more trusted on the economy and inflation for the first time.
• Only 22% approve of Trump's and the GOP's handling of cost of living, according to a new survey.
• The memo instructs Republicans to center every policy fight, floor speech, and campaign event on lowering costs for working families.
• The warning extends beyond the House fight, indicating the Senate is equally vulnerable.
• The party's window to act is now, and failure to show results on prices could cost the majority.