Padres' Tatis Endures Historic Power Drought Despite Elite Contact

Key facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 131 plate appearances without a home run, one shy of his career-worst drought.
• Tatis leads MLB with a 64.7% hard-hit rate and 55 batted balls at 95+ mph exit velocity.
• He holds the Statcast-era record for a calendar month with 66 exit velocities of 95-plus mph.
• Tatis is batting.250 with four doubles, 13 RBIs, 13 walks, and a.609 OPS.
• The Padres lost 5-4 to the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday, dropping to 30 games into the season.
• Tatis' average launch angle, fly-ball rate, and pull percentage are at all-time lows.
• No other player has more plate appearances this season without a home run.

A Power Outage Defying Physics

Fernando Tatis Jr. stepped to the plate in the bottom of the eighth inning Wednesday with the bases loaded, no outs, and the San Diego Padres trailing the Chicago Cubs by two runs. Cubs reliever Ben Brown hung a curveball on a 1-1 count, and Tatis unleashed a swing that sent the ball off his bat at 102.8 mph. For a moment, he tracked its trajectory toward center field before looking away in disgust. “I’ve been close for a while, but it’s just a sacrifice fly,” Tatis said after the 5-4 loss, slouched in his clubhouse chair. The fly ball plated a run but did not leave the yard, extending a drought that has become the defining story of his season. Through 30 games, Tatis leads the majors with a 64.7 percent hard-hit rate, yet he has zero home runs to show for it.

Elite Contact, Zero Results

Tatis’ 55 batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph are four more than the next-closest player, Kansas City Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. It is one of the highest totals since the start of the 2015 season, and Tatis himself holds the Statcast-era record for a calendar month with 66 such exit velocities in August 2020. But unlike that month, he has consistently struggled to elevate or pull the baseball, instead hitting ground balls that produce nothing but outs. His average launch angle, fly-ball rate, and pull percentage are at all-time lows. The season-opening streak of 131 plate appearances without a home run is one shy of the career-worst power outage he experienced last summer. No other player has gone up to bat more times this season without going deep.

The Search for Answers

Tatis has tried everything to break the slump. “I’m doing everything,” he said. “Hitting early, doing batting practice, after [games]. It still doesn’t turn around. I don’t know. Trying to figure it out.” Almost three weeks ago, he voiced his belief that “the baseball gods are really mad at me,” a sentiment that remains unchanged. Padres bench coach Randy Knorr expressed sympathy. “I’ve never seen that before,” he said. “Every night, he’s just crushing balls, and it happens to be at somebody out there. And you kind of feel bad for him because he’s working hard every day, and you feel like if a couple of them would just drop for him, he can get on a roll.”

Coaching Staff's Perspective

Padres hitting coach Steven Souza Jr. sees a player on the verge of a breakout. “I do think that he’s, like, super close,” Souza said. “I feel like I’ve been saying that for three weeks, but I do think it’s a matter of a couple clicks and ironing some stuff out, and then it’s just going to go.” Souza also warned against trying to do too much. “The hardest thing about when you go through a stretch like this is to not try and do more,” he said. “When [Tatis] hits the ball, it’s like a hot knife slicing through butter, and it goes a long ways. The problem with any hitter in this room, not just Tati, is when you try and hit it far. That’s when you end up breaking down mechanically.” Souza noted that Tatis has been “super mature through the process” and working every day. “There’s not much more you could ask for,” he added.

Stakes for the Padres' Season

Despite Tatis’ struggles, the Padres have found ways to win games. But if San Diego is to compete for a World Series title, the team needs its star to contribute offensively. Tatis is normally one of the most explosive hitters in the game, and his energy has driven the Padres in past seasons. His multi-year streak of hitting at least 20 home runs in a season is now in jeopardy. As the dog days of summer approach, the Padres may only be able to win in spite of their star for so long. The longer the drought continues, the more doubt will grow. Tatis’.250 average,.609 OPS, and zero home runs are a troubling sign for a team with championship aspirations.

What Comes Next

Tatis will continue his daily routine of early batting practice and post-game work, hoping for a breakthrough. His recent trip through Coors Field and Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú — two ballparks located a mile or more above sea level — yielded only five singles in 21 at-bats, inspiring both sympathy and consternation. History is not on his side: his career-worst drought last summer stretched to 132 plate appearances, and he is now one shy of that mark. Yet the Padres and their hitting coach remain confident. “I do think it’s a matter of a couple clicks,” Souza reiterated. For Tatis, the frustration is palpable but not paralyzing. “Just not happy,” he said. “I’m going through it, and I’m just trying to figure it out.”

The bottom line

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has not hit a home run in 131 plate appearances, one shy of his career-worst drought.
• He leads MLB in hard-hit rate (64.7%) and batted balls at 95+ mph (55), yet has zero homers.
• His launch angle, fly-ball rate, and pull percentage are at career lows, indicating a mechanical issue.
• The Padres have won games despite Tatis' slump, but his production is critical for a World Series run.
• Tatis is working extensively with coaches and remains confident a breakthrough is near.
• The drought threatens his streak of 20-homer seasons and raises questions about his long-term form.