Republican Steve Hilton Leads Fractured Democratic Field in California Governor's Race

Key facts

• Steve Hilton, a Republican and former Fox News host, leads in most polls for California governor.
• California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003.
• Democrats hold a two-to-one voter registration advantage over Republicans in California.
• Democratic candidate Eric Swalwell dropped out last month amid sexual misconduct allegations.
• Hilton has the largest number of individual campaign donors and ranks third in fundraising.
• President Donald Trump won 6 million votes in California in 2024, 1.6 million more than in 2016.
• The top-two open primary on June 2 could see two Republicans advance if Democratic vote splits.

A Republican Surge in Deep-Blue California

Two decades after California last elected a Republican governor, Steve Hilton is leading in the polls, an astonishing turn in a state where Democrats enjoy supermajorities in the legislature and a two-to-one voter registration advantage. With less than six weeks until the June 2 primary, Hilton, a former Downing Street adviser to David Cameron and ex-Fox News host, is narrowly ahead of a fractured field of Democrats. The race has been thrown into chaos by the sudden exit of Democratic contender Eric Swalwell amid sexual misconduct allegations, and no Democratic frontrunner has emerged.

Hilton's Grassroots Campaign and Trump Endorsement

Hilton has bucked conventional wisdom by focusing on in-person campaigning across the state, visiting nearly every corner to woo farmers, suburban mothers, and Latino small business owners. He argues that one-party Democratic rule has been disastrous, citing high costs of living, poverty rates, and the state's top-three unemployment rate. President Donald Trump's endorsement has given Hilton a boost among Republicans, though it may also reduce the likelihood that he and fellow Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco both advance to the general election.

Democratic Disarray and the Open Primary

The Democratic field, including Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, and Katie Porter, is scrambling for the same voters, raising fears that the top-two open primary could shut out Democrats entirely. Under the reform enacted during Arnold Schwarzenegger's tenure, the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party. Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks acknowledged the risk, stating, 'I continue to believe there are too many Democrats in the field.' The uncertainty has been compounded by Swalwell's departure and the lack of a clear frontrunner.

Voter Discontent and the 'Political Revolution'

Hilton is betting on what he calls a 'political revolution'—a decisive shift of Democratic voters to his side due to economic pressures. A majority of Californians believe the state is heading in the wrong direction, with inflation, housing costs, and health care as top concerns. At campaign stops, Hilton portrays 16 years of Democratic governance as bloated and burdensome, promising to abolish the annual $800 business tax and crack down on worker compensation lawsuits. His message resonates in places like Downey, a Los Angeles suburb that swung 18.8 percentage points toward Trump in 2024.

Fundraising and Donor Shifts

Hilton has the largest number of individual campaign donors and ranks third in fundraising, behind self-financing billionaire Tom Steyer and Silicon Valley-backed centrist Matt Mahan. Some of Mahan's donors, including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, are now moving to Hilton, citing Mahan's poor polling numbers. Hilton's campaign stops are crowded and energetic, with supporters drawn to his low-key British charm and pithy critiques of one-party rule.

The Path to November

While victory in November remains a long shot, the prospect of a Republican governor has rattled Democratic leaders. Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy noted, 'The mismanagement of Gavin Newsom and such a weak field gives voters a chance to actually look at somebody new and better for California.' Hilton himself told a crowd in Huntington Beach, 'Each day that goes by, I believe more and more that we can pull this off. There is a majority for change in California.'

A Watershed Moment or a Distant Dream?

Hilton's campaign seeks to harness the same energy that helped rebrand the Conservative Party in Britain two decades ago. He dresses hard-right positions in the language of common sense and compassion, appealing to voters tired of high costs and bureaucratic red tape. Yet Democrats argue that in the era of Trump, disdain for the president runs too deep for a Republican to win statewide. The June 2 primary will test whether Hilton's message can overcome California's deep-blue tilt.

The bottom line

• Steve Hilton leads most polls for California governor, a rare Republican surge in a deep-blue state.
• The open primary could result in two Republicans advancing if Democratic votes split among multiple candidates.
• Hilton's campaign emphasizes grassroots outreach and economic discontent, capitalizing on Democratic disarray.
• President Trump's endorsement boosts Hilton among Republicans but may alienate moderate voters.
• Democratic leaders are concerned about the fractured field and the possibility of losing the governor's office for the first time since 2003.
• The June 2 primary will be a critical test of whether Hilton's message can overcome California's Democratic lean.