Patriotic Alliance Breaches DA's Western Cape Stronghold in Stellenbosch By-Election

Key facts

• Patriotic Alliance won Ward 15 (Cloetesville) from DA with 39% of the vote, a 177-vote margin.
• DA's Elsabe Vermeulen defected to PA and retained her ward seat under the new party banner.
• DA won Ward 25 (Uniondale) from ANC with 42.97% (1,042 votes), 223 votes ahead of PA.
• Former ANC councillor Jarques Esau defected to DA and was re-elected in Uniondale.
• PA now tied with EFF as fourth-largest party in Stellenbosch council, with two seats.
• Turnout in Cloetesville was 52%; in Uniondale's Lyonville district it reached 62%.
• PA gained 23% in Ward 15's 2024 provincial vote, up from 3% in 2021 local elections.
• DA's Stellenbosch council majority fell from 28 to 27 seats out of 45.

A Defection Shifts Power in Stellenbosch

The Patriotic Alliance (PA) captured Ward 15 in Cloetesville, Stellenbosch, from the Democratic Alliance (DA) in a by-election triggered by the defection of DA ward councillor Elsabe Vermeulen. Vermeulen, who crossed the floor to the PA, stood as the PA candidate and won with 39% of the vote, defeating the DA's 31%. The victory gives the PA its first ward seat in Stellenbosch and reduces the DA's majority on the 45-seat council to 27 seats. The by-election saw a turnout of 52% of registered voters. The PA's strongest performance came at the Cloetesville Primary School voting district, where it outpaced the DA by 154 votes, securing the overall 177-vote margin. The Good party finished third with 19%, while the ANC managed only 9%.

Uniondale: DA Strikes Back, Wins ANC Stronghold

In a parallel contest, the DA reclaimed Ward 25 in Uniondale, part of the George municipal area, from the African National Congress (ANC). The by-election was necessitated after ANC ward councillor Jarques Esau defected to the DA. Esau stood as the DA candidate and won with 42.97% of the vote (1,042 votes), defeating the PA's Zane Jaquin Arends, who secured 33.77% (819 votes). The ANC's Ruchiano Olyn garnered only 14.39% (349 votes), while the EFF's Deon Godfrey Leminie took 8.82% (214 votes). The DA swept all four voting districts in the ward, including the densely populated Lyonville district, where it beat the PA by 75 votes. Turnout in Lyonville reached 62%, the highest in the ward. The ANC's support collapsed, losing more than half its percentage share compared to the 2021 local elections.

Defectors and Their Impact on Local Politics

Both by-elections were defined by defections. In Stellenbosch, Elsabe Vermeulen's switch from the DA to the PA allowed the PA to win a ward it had never held. Vermeulen, who had been elected as a DA councillor in 2021, will now finish her term under the PA banner. The DA's loss in Cloetesville marks the fourth time the PA has broken the DA's 'blue wall' in the Western Cape, following similar gains in Mossel Bay, Swartland (Malmesbury), and Drakenstein (Paarl). In Uniondale, Jarques Esau's defection from the ANC to the DA enabled the DA to flip a seat it had not won since 2021. Esau's re-election suggests strong personal support that transcended party loyalty. The DA's Western Cape leader, Tertuis Simmers, hailed the result as 'an enormous victory,' noting that the DA more than doubled its vote share compared to the 2021 local elections.

Shifting Voter Alignments in the Western Cape

The by-elections reveal significant realignments among voters. In Cloetesville, the PA's support surged from 3% in the 2021 local elections to 39% in the by-election, while the DA dropped from 48% to 31%. The Good party also lost ground, falling from 22% to 19%. The PA's gains appear to have come from former DA and Good voters, as well as from higher turnout. In Uniondale, the PA's rise was equally dramatic: from just four votes in 2021 to 33.77% in the by-election. The party has established itself as the primary alternative to the DA in the area. The EFF's vote share held steady at around 9%, but there was little evidence that former Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI) voters, who had backed the ANC in 2021, shifted to the EFF. Instead, the DA and PA were the main beneficiaries of the absence of PBI and Good from the ballot.

Broader Implications for Western Cape Politics

The PA's success in Cloetesville and its strong showing in Uniondale underscore its growing influence in the Western Cape, traditionally a DA stronghold. The party now holds two seats on the Stellenbosch council, tying with the EFF as the fourth-largest party. More significantly, it is one of only three parties with a ward councillor in Stellenbosch, alongside the DA and the ANC. The DA's retention of Uniondale, however, demonstrates its resilience and ability to win back seats through defections. The party's victory in a ward where it had finished third in 2021 suggests that strategic candidate selection and voter outreach can reverse losses. The by-elections also highlight the volatility of local politics in South Africa, where party loyalty is increasingly fluid and defections can rapidly alter the balance of power.

What Comes Next for the Parties

For the PA, the Cloetesville win provides momentum heading into future by-elections and the 2026 local government elections. The party has proven it can win ward seats in both urban and rural settings, challenging the DA's dominance in the Western Cape. The PA will likely target additional wards where it has built support, particularly in areas with significant coloured and working-class populations. For the DA, the Uniondale victory offers a template for countering the PA's rise: recruit defectors from other parties and consolidate support in rural wards. However, the loss in Stellenbosch is a warning that the DA cannot take its base for granted. The ANC, meanwhile, faces a crisis of relevance in the Western Cape, having lost a ward it won comfortably in 2021 and seeing its support halve in Uniondale. The party will need to rebuild its grassroots organization if it hopes to remain competitive in the region.

The bottom line

• The PA's victory in Cloetesville marks the fourth breach of the DA's 'blue wall' in the Western Cape, signalling a durable shift in voter loyalty.
• Defections are reshaping local councils: both by-elections were triggered by councillors switching parties, and both defectors won re-election.
• The PA has emerged as the main challenger to the DA in the Western Cape, particularly among coloured and working-class voters.
• The DA's win in Uniondale shows it can still hold ground in rural areas by recruiting defectors and mobilizing its base.
• The ANC's support in the Western Cape continues to erode, losing a ward it had won by 202 votes in 2021 to a distant third-place finish.
• Voter turnout in by-elections (52% in Cloetesville, 62% in Lyonville) indicates high engagement, likely driven by the high stakes of shifting party control.