Europe Faces Jet Fuel Crisis as Iran War Cuts Middle East Flows, Analysts Warn

Key facts

• Europe’s average daily jet fuel demand is 1.6 million barrels, with 500,000 barrels imported.
• Three-quarters of Europe’s jet fuel imports traditionally came from the Middle East.
• The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed on Feb. 28 after U.S.-Iran conflict began.
• Jet fuel price reached $4.30 per gallon on April 23, more than double the $2.07 a year earlier.
• U.S. jet fuel exports hit a record 442,000 barrels per day in early April.
• Europe now receives about 200,000 barrels per day from the U.S., up from 30,000-60,000 before the war.
• A Middle East deficit of about 175,000 barrels per day remains.
• paying millions more for fuel and have raised baggage fees and cut capacity.

A Continent Scrambles for Fuel

Europe is racing to secure alternative jet fuel supplies after the Iran war severed the flow of Middle Eastern imports, creating what analysts at Societe Generale have called a 'global stress test' for the airline industry. The International Energy Agency warned earlier this month that the continent could run out of jet fuel in weeks. The prospect of sweeping cancellations and steep price hikes looms across Europe. The continent's average daily demand of about 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel is typically met primarily through domestic production of 1.1 million barrels per day. The remaining 500,000 barrels come from imports, three-quarters of which traditionally arrived from the Middle East, according to a on Monday. That supply has largely dried up since the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel effectively closed after the U.S.-Iran conflict started on Feb. 28.

The Strait of Hormuz Closure and Its Aftermath

Before the conflict, about 360,000 barrels of jet fuel were moved through the Strait of Hormuz every day, representing about 20% of shipped global flows. Iran announced the closure of the strait in response to joint airstrikes launched by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. The waterway between Iran and Oman normally sees an average of about 20 million barrels of oil per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Jet fuel prices began rising immediately after the war started. They first crossed $3 per gallon on March 3 and soared as high as $4.88 per gallon on April 2, the price stood at $4.30 per gallon, more than double the $2.07 per gallon at the same time in 2025. Prices have not been below $3 since the war began, compared to $2.50 on Feb. 27 and an average of about $2 per gallon a year earlier.

Europe Turns to the U.S. and Nigeria

While jet fuel remains available, it is 'nowhere near' what is needed to replace supplies normally imported from the Gulf, said Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus. 'While we can import more, and we are, from the U.S. and Nigeria, we have to fight for every cargo that's going to come,' George told CNBC's 'Squawk Box Europe' on Monday. 'We have to fight against Singapore, against Australia — and the price...just goes higher and higher.' The U.S. has emerged as a key source. U.S. global exports of jet fuel have soared to a record 442,000 barrels a day in early April, or about 372,000 barrels over a four-week average, 000 barrels a day more than the five-year norm of 172,000 barrels a day. Historically, the U.S. exported about half of its jet fuel to neighbors Mexico, Canada and Panama, but now Europe is competing for that supply.

The Arithmetic of the Shortfall

Before the war, Europe typically received between 30,000 and 60,000 barrels a day from the U.S. That has since surged to about 200,000 barrels a day. But a Middle East deficit of about 53% of normal flows, or 175,000 barrels a day, remains. The continent must 'fight for every cargo' to close that gap, as analysts have described the situation as a global stress test. The leaders of major U.S. airlines, including American, Southwest, Delta and United, said in recent earnings calls that they are paying millions more in jet fuel compared to 2025. The higher cost of doing business has led to higher airfares, flight cuts, and recent decisions to raise checked bag fees. Some parts of the world, particularly Europe, are experiencing jet fuel shortages, forcing the suspension of some routes between Europe and the United States.

Consumers Face Higher Fares and Fewer Flights

Air travelers can expect airfares to be more expensive as airlines try to recoup fuel costs. Airlines also plan to reduce capacity on some routes or suspend them altogether. Every major airline has increased baggage fees. The most recent price of jet fuel was $4.30 per gallon, more than double the $2.07 per gallon it was at the same time in 2025. Consumers will notice higher prices and fewer available flights on some routes as airlines work through soaring jet fuel prices. The combination of reduced capacity and increased fees is reshaping summer travel plans across the Atlantic. The situation is particularly acute for routes that depend on the now-disrupted Middle Eastern supply chain.

A Global Battle for Supply

Europe is not alone in its scramble. Singapore and Australia are also competing for the same limited cargoes from the U.S. and Nigeria, driving prices higher. The global nature of the jet fuel market means that shortages in one region quickly ripple worldwide. Analysts at Societe Generale have described the current environment as a 'global stress test' for the airline industry. The continent must 'fight for every cargo' that comes, as Benedict George put it. The price of jet fuel continues to rise, and the deficit from the Middle East remains unresolved. The outlook for summer travel is uncertain, with further cancellations and price increases likely if alternative supplies do not materialize quickly.

The Road Ahead

The International Energy Agency's warning that Europe could run out of jet fuel in weeks underscores the urgency. While the U.S. has ramped up exports to record levels, it cannot fully replace the lost Middle Eastern supply. The deficit of about 175,000 barrels per day persists, and competition from other regions is fierce. The airline industry is bracing for a prolonged period of high fuel costs and reduced capacity. The decisions made in the coming weeks by European governments and airlines will determine whether the continent can avoid widespread flight cancellations. For now, the battle for every cargo continues, and the price keeps climbing.

The bottom line

• Europe faces a 53% deficit in jet fuel imports from the Middle East due to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure.
• Jet fuel prices have more than doubled to $4.30 per gallon, with a peak of $4.88 on April 2.
• U.S. jet fuel exports hit a record 442,000 barrels per day, but Europe still faces a shortfall of 175,000 barrels daily.
• Major airlines have raised fares, cut capacity, and increased baggage fees to offset higher fuel costs.
• Some transatlantic routes have been suspended due to fuel shortages in Europe.
• The global competition for jet fuel cargoes is driving prices higher and straining supply chains.