Burnham's Plan to Return to Westminster Within Weeks Intensifies Labour Leadership Race

Key facts

• Andy Burnham has identified several parliamentary seats where MPs are prepared to step aside for him to run in a byelection.
• Burnham's team has lined up an 'impressive' candidate to replace him as Greater Manchester mayor.
• More than 80 Labour MPs now back Burnham, the threshold needed to challenge the prime minister.
• Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner each have 80 MPs willing to back them for an immediate leadership challenge.
• Labour is expected to lose over 1,800 seats in the upcoming local and devolved elections on 7 May.
• Burnham plans to outline a 'radical rewiring' of the state, including proportional representation and a 10-year growth plan.
• Bev Craig, leader of Manchester city council, is seen as the frontrunner to succeed Burnham as mayor.

A Leadership Bid in Motion

Andy Burnham has a credible plan to return to Westminster 'within weeks,' his allies have said, with the Greater Manchester mayor expected to use a byelection fight to set out a new agenda for government. Burnham, who was blocked by Labour’s ruling body from running in February’s Gorton and Denton byelection, has identified several seats where MPs are prepared to step aside for his leadership bid. In a sign that his campaign is more progressed than previously thought, Burnham’s team is understood to have lined up an 'impressive' candidate to replace him as Greater Manchester mayor.

The Numbers Game: Support for Burnham Grows

After a fortnight that left Keir Starmer fighting for his political future over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, the number of MPs backing Burnham is understood to have grown to far more than the 80 required to challenge the prime minister. However, his supporters said they hoped to avoid a formal leadership challenge and to engineer a process where Starmer would set out a timetable to stand down soon after next week’s votes for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and councils across England. MPs have discussed the possibility of Burnham offering Starmer the chance to stay on as foreign secretary and continue work on the Iran war and Ukraine.

Rival Camps: Streeting and Rayner Ready to Strike

The battle to succeed Sir Keir Starmer is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting, as Labour MPs admit they cannot wait for Andy Burnham to return to Westminster and launch a leadership challenge. The Independent understands that both Ms Rayner and Mr Streeting 'have the numbers' of MPs to launch leadership bids, with pressure expected to ramp up as the dire state of the party’s position becomes clear after next week’s election results. Backers of other potential leadership challengers – Wes Streeting and Rayner – are both said to have 80 MPs willing to back their candidates for an immediate challenge to Starmer.

Dire Election Forecasts Fuel the Urgency

Labour canvassers in London boroughs such as Barking and Dagenham, where the party previously held unchallenged control, and postal box sampling in Birmingham, have suggested that the results could be 'even worse than expected.' Earlier this week, polling expert Lord Robert Hayward predicted that Labour would lose more than 1,800 seats, and one Labour MP told The Independent: 'It will be curtains for the PM.' The potentially catastrophic results on 7 May are expected to end Starmer’s premiership, prompting the leadership scramble.

Burnham's Policy Platform: A Radical Rewiring

Burnham, a former health secretary, is said to be preparing an explicit programme for government that would be announced at a prospective parliamentary byelection campaign. Pledges backed by Burnham include introducing proportional representation across the UK, a 10-year plan for local services, and an overhaul of inheritance tax to pay for the social care system. Allies said he planned to outline a 'radical rewiring' of the state in the coming weeks – including sweeping changes to the electoral system and a 10-year growth plan.

Internal Dynamics and the 'Anybody but Ange' Briefing

Ms Rayner, who is still awaiting a judgment in an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs, is widely believed to have greater support among the Labour Party membership than Mr Streeting, who is ideologically on the right wing of the party. Already, an 'anybody but Ange' briefing operation has started to aid Mr Streeting and prevent a takeover by the left of the party. A supporter of Ms Rayner said: 'She definitely has the numbers to launch a challenge. Not to have a coup.' While one source close to Ms Rayner pushed back on the idea that she is actively considering a leadership bid, they did not deny that she will be forced to make a decision after the elections, with Sir Keir also dangling an offer to return to the cabinet in front of her in a bid to see off any threat to his position.

What Comes Next: A Race Against Time

Only the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group of MPs is determined to hold on for Burnham, but it does not have the numbers to force the issue. One MP noted: 'We cannot wait for Andy. He might be the most unifying candidate, but he’s not here, and there seems to be no obvious path for him to come soon.' Meanwhile, support for other leadership candidates appears to have fallen away. The coming days will determine whether Starmer can survive the electoral bloodbath or whether the party will move to replace him with one of the three contenders.

The bottom line

• Andy Burnham is actively preparing a return to Westminster via a byelection, with a replacement mayor lined up.
• Both Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner have secured the 81 MP nominations needed to challenge Starmer.
• Labour is forecast to lose over 1,800 seats in the 7 May elections, likely triggering a leadership contest.
• Burnham's policy platform includes proportional representation, a 10-year growth plan, and inheritance tax reform for social care.
• An 'anybody but Ange' campaign is underway to boost Streeting and block Rayner, who has stronger membership support.
• Starmer may offer Rayner a cabinet position to stave off a challenge, but her allies say a decision will come after the elections.