Kenya Braces for Intensified Long Rains as Flood Death Toll Reaches 66

Key facts

• 66 people have died from recent floods, including 39 in Nairobi.
• Above-average rainfall expected in northern Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera.
• Heavy rainfall forecast from March 18 to March 24 across 11 counties.
• Probability of moderate to heavy rainfall ranges between 33% and 66%.
• Isolated heavy storms possible in any part of the country.
• Long rains season expected to taper off by late May, except in western Kenya and the Coast.
• Daytime temperatures above average in Coast, North-Eastern, and North-Western regions.
• Night-time temperatures to dip in highlands but remain warm in low-lying areas.

Renewed Rainfall Threatens Flood-Weary Nation

The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a fresh weather warning, forecasting intensified rainfall toward the end of April that could trigger widespread flooding. The advisory comes as the country grapples with the aftermath of recent floods that have claimed 66 lives, with 39 fatalities reported in Nairobi alone. The agency's latest monthly outlook indicates that the 2026 Long Rains season, after a subdued start, is expected to gather momentum with a marked increase in precipitation in the final weeks of the month. The forecast covers a six-day period from the night of March 18 to the morning of March 24, with moderate to heavy rainfall probabilities between 33 and 66 percent.

Regional Rainfall Distribution and Risks

Rainfall distribution will vary significantly across the country. Parts of the North-Eastern region, including northern Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera, are expected to receive above-average rainfall. Near-average precipitation is projected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands east and west of the Rift Valley including Nairobi, as well as parts of the Rift Valley and north-western Kenya. In contrast, near- to below-average rainfall is expected in the South-Eastern lowlands and parts of Turkana and Samburu, while the coastal strip is likely to experience below-average rainfall. Despite these trends, the department cautioned that isolated heavy storms could occur in any part of the country, posing risks even in typically dry zones.

Vulnerable Communities and Preparedness Measures

Communities in northern Kenya have been urged to remain vigilant, avoid riverbanks, and heed evacuation directives in flood-prone zones. Residents in arid and semi-arid regions such as Turkana, Garissa, and parts of Marsabit and Wajir have been flagged, with authorities warning that flash floods could occur even in typically dry areas. Farmers in high rainfall areas face the risk of waterlogging and crop damage, with experts advising improved drainage and careful soil management. In drier regions, particularly along the Coast, farmers are being encouraged to adopt irrigation and strengthen pest control measures. Transport and infrastructure agencies have been put on alert over potential road damage, including washouts and blocked culverts, while health officials have been advised to secure clean water supplies and stock essential medicines in areas that could be cut off by floods.

Urban and Infrastructure Impact

The forecast highlights moderate to heavy rainfall across urban and rural areas, with counties including Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kisumu, Mombasa, Uasin Gishu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, and Nyeri among those likely to be affected. Motorists have been cautioned against driving through flooded roads, while pedestrians are advised to avoid walking in moving water due to the high risk of being swept away. The advisory further warns of poor visibility conditions that could disrupt transport, including road travel and aviation operations, particularly during periods of heavy downpour and thunderstorms. People have also been urged to avoid sheltering under trees or near metallic structures such as grilled windows to reduce the risk of lightning-related incidents during storms.

Temperature and Seasonal Outlook

Daytime temperatures are forecast to remain above average in the Coast, North-Eastern, and North-Western regions, while cooler conditions are likely in the Highlands, the Rift Valley, and the Lake Victoria Basin. Night-time temperatures are expected to dip in highland areas but remain relatively warm in low-lying regions. The meteorological department projects that while the long rains season will taper off in most parts of the country by late May, regions in western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Coast could continue receiving rainfall into June. Kenyans have been urged to follow regular weather updates, including daily and weekly forecasts, to better plan and respond to evolving conditions.

Government Coordination and Public Response

The alert has been circulated to key government agencies, including the National Disaster Operations Centre, Kenya Red Cross, and the Council of Governors, to enhance preparedness and response coordination. Authorities are encouraging the public to closely monitor updates and follow safety guidelines as conditions evolve, with more updates to be provided promptly if there are any changes. In highland regions like the Aberdare ranges and Mount Kenya slopes, residents are being asked to stay vigilant due to the increased likelihood of landslides triggered by saturated soils. The department's outlook comes against the backdrop of recent flooding, with authorities warning that renewed heavy rains could trigger rivers to burst their banks.

The bottom line

• The Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts intensified rainfall from late April, with above-average precipitation in northern regions and isolated heavy storms nationwide.
• Recent floods have killed 66 people, including 39 in Nairobi, underscoring the high stakes of the upcoming rains.
• Residents in flood-prone areas, especially near rivers and low-lying zones, are urged to evacuate and avoid flooded roads.
• Farmers face waterlogging in high-rainfall areas and drought in coastal regions, requiring adaptive measures like improved drainage and irrigation.
• Government agencies, including the Kenya Red Cross and National Disaster Operations Centre, are on alert to coordinate response efforts.
• The long rains season is expected to end by late May in most areas, but western Kenya and the Coast may see rainfall into June.