In Pala, BJP Surge Reshapes Kerala's Electoral Arithmetic as UDF Holds Seat

Key facts

• Mani C Kappen (UDF) won Pala with 50,799 votes, defeating Jose K Mani (KCM) who got 47,808 votes.
• Kappen's winning margin fell from over 15,000 in 2021 to 2,991 votes in 2026.
• BJP's Shone George secured 35,304 votes, up from ~10,000 in 2021.
• Repolling ordered at 15 booths in two West Bengal constituencies and all booths of Falta assembly seat.
• Around 1,500 people were arrested in Bengal to ensure peaceful voting in the second phase.
• CCTV cameras at Barasat strongroom were off between 4:05am and 8:22am on Saturday, sparking TMC-BJP tension.
• Chandy Oommen led by over 52,000 votes in Puthupally, Kottayam.
• UDF lead crossed 99 seats in Kerala assembly polls, per Sunny Joseph.

A Tightened Contest in Pala

Mani C Kappen of the United Democratic Front (UDF) has retained the Pala Assembly seat, defeating Kerala Congress (M) chairman Jose K Mani by a margin of 2,991 votes in one of the closest contests of the 2026 Kerala Assembly election. Kappen secured 50,799 votes, while Jose K Mani polled 47,808 — both candidates registering lower tallies compared to the 2021 election. The result marks a sharp reversal from the 2021 contest, when Kappen defeated Jose by a margin of over 15,000 votes. The reduced margin underscores a significant shift in the constituency's political dynamics, driven largely by the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) improved performance.

BJP's Rising Influence

BJP candidate Shone George emerged as a decisive factor in the outcome, securing 35,304 votes — a sharp rise from the party’s tally of around 10,000 votes in 2021. His improved performance is widely seen as having altered the electoral arithmetic in Pala, siphoning votes from both major candidates and significantly reducing Kappen’s winning margin. While Kappen managed to hold the seat, his vote count fell sharply from the 69,804 votes he secured in 2021, underlining the impact of the BJP’s stronger showing. The trend aligns with Onmanorama’s Poll Meter survey, which predicted a much tighter contest than in the previous election.

Concession and Analysis from Jose K Mani

Jose K Mani conceded defeat and congratulated Kappen after the result became clear. Speaking to reporters, he attributed the outcome to a broader statewide swing in favour of the opposition. “There was a UDF wave across the state. The people’s verdict favoured the UDF, while the LDF fell behind. We will examine what went wrong,” Jose said. His remarks come as the UDF’s lead crossed 99 seats in the Kerala Assembly polls, who described the trend as a “historic victory ahead.” The LDF, which had won five of Kottayam district’s nine seats in 2021, now appears to be losing ground.

Pala's Political Legacy and Realignments

Long regarded as the political heartland of Kerala Congress politics, Pala was the stronghold of late Kerala Congress (M) stalwart K M Mani, who represented the seat continuously until 2016. Following his death in 2019, the constituency became central to a series of political realignments and leadership battles within Kerala Congress (M). A turning point came in the aftermath of the 2019 Pala bypoll, where Jose-backed candidate Jose Tom Pulikkunnel lost to Mani C Kappen, who was then contesting as the LDF candidate. The defeat, coupled with internal disputes over party leadership and symbol allocation with senior leader P J Joseph, eventually led Jose to split the party and formally join the LDF ahead of the 2021 Assembly polls. That alliance switch yielded gains for both the LDF and KCM in Kottayam, with the LDF winning five of the district’s nine seats in 2021.

Electoral Tensions in West Bengal

Meanwhile, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has ordered repolling in all polling booths of the Falta Assembly constituency in West Bengal, as well as at 15 booths across two assembly constituencies in South 24 Parganas district. Repolling has concluded at those 15 booths. The repoll orders follow allegations of tampering with Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) in the Diamond Harbour area, where polling was reportedly stopped at some booths after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alleged that buttons on EVMs were taped. Tension also erupted outside the Barasat strongroom after allegations that CCTV cameras were turned off between 4:05am and 8:22am on Saturday, prompting the ECI to issue a clarification.

Security Measures and Arrests

To ensure peaceful voting in the second phase of polling for 142 Assembly segments across seven south Bengal districts, authorities arrested around 1,500 people. The arrests were part of a broader effort to maintain order during a contentious election cycle marked by frequent clashes between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP. The ECI’s swift action in ordering repolls and addressing allegations reflects the heightened scrutiny surrounding the West Bengal elections, where the ruling TMC and the opposition BJP have traded accusations of malpractice.

Outlook and Implications

The results in Pala and the broader UDF lead in Kerala suggest a significant shift in voter sentiment away from the LDF, which had dominated the state in recent years. The BJP’s improved performance in Pala, a traditional Congress stronghold, indicates that the party is making inroads in Kerala, potentially reshaping future electoral contests. In West Bengal, the repolling orders and ongoing tensions underscore the challenges facing the ECI in ensuring free and fair elections. The commission’s handling of allegations and its transparency in addressing concerns will be critical as the election process continues.

The bottom line

• Mani C Kappen retained Pala with a reduced margin of 2,991 votes, while BJP candidate Shone George tripled his party's vote share to 35,304.
• The UDF lead crossed 99 seats in Kerala, signaling a statewide swing away from the LDF.
• Jose K Mani conceded defeat and attributed the outcome to a UDF wave, vowing to examine what went wrong.
• Pala's political dynamics continue to evolve after the death of K M Mani, with realignments between KCM, LDF, and UDF.
• In West Bengal, the ECI ordered repolls in Falta and 15 booths after allegations of EVM tampering and CCTV outages.
• Around 1,500 arrests were made in Bengal to ensure peaceful voting in the second phase.