Estonia Warns Russia Could Restore Combat Readiness by 2027, Urges NATO to Bolster Defenses

Key facts

• Estonian Defense Forces commander General Andrus Merilo stated Russia could restore combat readiness by 2027.
• Estonian President Alar Karis said Europe missed an opportunity to force Russia to the negotiating table in spring 2022.
• Merilo emphasized that Estonia must rapidly raise its readiness level with better training and modern equipment.
• warns that Russia will test new targets through destabilizing actions and campaigns after the Ukraine war.
• Karis insisted Europe must develop a plan for peace talks and the post-war period, and not be excluded from future negotiations.
• Estonian Defense Forces are integrating lessons from Ukraine, including achieving lethal effects with cheaper means.
• Merilo noted that NATO remains strong and functional despite incidents involving Russia's shadow fleet and border violations.

Estonia’s Defense Chief Sets 2027 as Deadline for Russian Military Recovery

Russia could restore its combat readiness as early as 2027, according to the annual report of the Estonian Defense Forces, presented by commander General Andrus Merilo. The assessment comes despite heavy Russian losses in Ukraine, signaling that Moscow continues its military reform and will emerge from the conflict capable of new aggression. Merilo warned that after withdrawing from the war in Ukraine, Russia will rebuild its army’s fighting capacity while simultaneously probing for new targets through destabilizing actions and campaigns. “In my assessment, 2027 is the year when Russia’s combat readiness will be restored, and if at that time it sees a favorable opportunity to use its army, it will act,” he said.

Estonia Must Rapidly Upgrade Its Military Capabilities

stresses that Estonia must achieve a higher state of readiness, including better training and more modern equipment. Merilo argued that classical combat readiness is no longer sufficient and that deterrence must be strengthened. “It means being ready to stop the adversary at the very beginning of a conflict and, if necessary, to win,” he explained. He also noted that the current security situation leaves nothing off the table. “It does not mean that we must immediately expect a direct military attack, but in the current security situation we cannot rule anything out,” Merilo said. The Estonian Defense Forces are incorporating lessons from Ukraine, particularly the insight that lethal effects can be achieved with significantly cheaper means than previously thought.

Integrating Technology Across Domains: Air, Land, Sea, Space, and Cyber

Major Ivo Põõts, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces’ Future Capabilities and Innovation Command, emphasized the need to integrate technology across all domains. “When we talk about the Baltic defense line or bunkers, one of the questions is how we can improve these bunker lines. How can we integrate technologies that strengthen our border security – not only on the border but throughout Estonia – in the air, on land, at sea, and also in space and cyberspace,” he said. Over the past year, the Estonian Defense Forces dealt with incidents involving Russia’s shadow fleet, border violations, and stray Ukrainian drones. Merilo stated that these incidents demonstrated that NATO remains strong and functional. Regarding delays in U.S. arms deliveries, he described them as a temporary obstacle.

President Karis: Europe Missed a Diplomatic Window in 2022

Estonian President Alar Karis, in an interview with Finnish public broadcaster Yle, argued that Europe made a major mistake at the start of the war. In spring 2022, when Russian forces were pushed back from the vicinity of Kyiv, Europe had an opportunity to force the aggressor to the negotiating table. “Now no one comes there anymore,” Karis said. He urged Europe to immediately develop a plan for peace talks with Russia and for the post-war period, stating that the current approach has been insufficient. Karis emphasized that relations with Russia will remain difficult long after the war ends, and that the key prerequisite is change within Russia itself. “The most important thing is that Russia has to change,” he stressed, citing Germany’s transformation after World War II as an example.

Europe Must Have a Seat at the Table in Future Ukraine Negotiations

Karis insisted that Europe cannot be sidelined in any future negotiations on Ukraine. “There cannot be a situation where the U.S., Russia, and perhaps some third country sit at the negotiating table, but Europe is not there,” he said. He rejected interpretations that he had called on Ukraine to give up territories for peace, stating, “That is for Ukraine to decide. We cannot tell them what to do.” The president’s comments align with the broader Estonian position that Europe must proactively shape the post-war security order rather than react to events. and Karis’s interview together paint a picture of a nation preparing for a prolonged period of heightened threat, while urging allies to match its sense of urgency.

Outlook: A Race Against Time for Baltic Defense

The convergence of Merilo’s military timeline and Karis’s diplomatic critique underscores a growing consensus in Tallinn: the window for reinforcing deterrence is narrow. With Russia expected to regenerate its conventional capabilities by 2027, Estonia and its NATO allies face a pressing need to accelerate defense investments, integrate new technologies, and maintain unity. Merilo’s closing remark captured the mood: “We live in interesting times, when each day brings something new, and given the current security situation, it is safe to say that these times will become even more interesting.” The question now is whether Europe and NATO will heed the warning before the clock runs out.

The bottom line

• Estonian Defense Forces assess that Russia can restore combat readiness by 2027, requiring immediate NATO response.
• General Andrus Merilo calls for rapid upgrades in training, equipment, and deterrence, integrating lessons from Ukraine.
• President Alar Karis criticizes Europe for failing to pressure Russia diplomatically in spring 2022 and urges a proactive peace plan.
• Karis insists Europe must have a seat at any future negotiations on Ukraine and cannot be excluded by the U.S. and Russia.
• Estonia is integrating technology across all domains and learning from Ukraine that cheaper means can achieve lethal effects.
• NATO remains functional, but delays in U.S. arms deliveries are a temporary obstacle that must be overcome.