Saudi Arabia Caught Between US-Iran Conflict and Widening Gulf Rift with UAE

Key facts

• US President Donald Trump's military campaign against Iran has cost an estimated $630bn to $1 trillion.
• The International Atomic Energy Agency found no proof of an active Iranian nuclear weapons programme.
• Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile was created after Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord.
• US and Israeli security sources confirm regime change by decapitation was the original plan.
• Saudi Arabia is experiencing widening fissures with the United Arab Emirates over the conflict.
• Iran threatens to close the Red Sea and Suez Canal if US and Israeli bombing resumes.
• Trump's negotiated settlement would leave Iran's missiles and drones intact, with de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz.

A Stalled Campaign and a Fractured Alliance

The US-led military campaign against Iran has hit a brick wall, leaving President Donald Trump with unpalatable choices that threaten to entangle Saudi Arabia in a protracted regional conflict. The widening fissures between Riyadh and its Gulf neighbor the United Arab Emirates are exacerbating the kingdom's predicament, as both nations grapple with the fallout of a war that has already cost between $630 billion and $1 trillion. With no resolution in sight, the conflict is taking a heavy toll on Saudi Arabia. The kingdom, which has long positioned itself as a stabilizing force in the Gulf, now finds itself caught between Washington's failing war aims and Abu Dhabi's increasingly overt alignment with Israel's strategic interests.

The Original Plan: Regime Change by Decapitation

US and Israeli security sources have confirmed that the real plan all along was regime change by decapitation — the toppling of Iran's Islamic Republic within days of killing its supreme leader and top military brass. When that failed, neither Trump nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a Plan B, other than to continue bombing Iran for two months. The failure of the decapitation strategy has left the US and its allies in a strategic vacuum. Any further military escalation, including a potential landing of US Marines on Iran's islands in the Strait of Hormuz, would expose troops to drone and missile attacks on terrain offering no cover, a scenario one analyst likened to Trump's Gallipoli.

Iran's Bargaining Chip and the Nuclear Question

Iran's stock of highly enriched uranium (HEU) was only created after Trump pulled out of the nuclear accord reached with Barack Obama, according to successive reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which found no proof of a structured, active nuclear weapons programme. The HEU is a bargaining chip that Tehran, for the right price, would have little difficulty disposing of — either by dilution, as it has already offered, or by sending it to Pakistan. If Trump opts for peace, it will be on terms that fall far short of his war aims. A negotiated settlement would leave Iran's missiles and drones intact, with the Strait of Hormuz under de facto Iranian control. Any deal structured around these pillars would make it hard for Trump to brand it as victory.

Geographic Escalation and the Threat to Global Chokepoints

Iran is not bluffing when it threatens to close the Red Sea and Suez Canal if the US and Israeli bombing campaign resumes. Such a move would have devastating consequences for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia, which relies on the Red Sea for its oil exports and imports. The conflict's geographic expansion would also draw in the UAE, whose increasingly overt involvement in Israel's plans is a recipe for conflict that could last decades, according to regional analysts. The fissures between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are widening as the two Gulf powers pursue divergent strategies: Saudi Arabia seeks de-escalation, while the UAE aligns more closely with Israel's hardline stance.

Trump's Three Big Losses in Any Negotiated Settlement

In any negotiated settlement, Trump faces three major losses: no regime change — in fact, quite the opposite, as the conflict has achieved regime enhancement in Iran; no surrender of Iran's missiles and drones; and the Strait of Hormuz remaining under de facto Iranian control. These outcomes would make it difficult for Trump to claim victory, especially given the staggering cost of the campaign, estimated between $630 billion and $1 trillion. The human and economic toll on Saudi Arabia is mounting. The kingdom, which has been a key US ally in the region, is now bearing the brunt of a conflict it did not start, with no end in sight.

What Comes Next: A Region on the Brink

With no resolution in sight, the conflict is taking a heavy toll on Saudi Arabia amid widening fissures with its Gulf neighbor the United Arab Emirates. The kingdom's leadership is increasingly isolated, caught between Washington's failing strategy and Abu Dhabi's hawkish posture. The coming months will test whether Saudi Arabia can navigate these treacherous waters without being dragged into a broader war. The stakes could not be higher: a conflict that has already cost trillions and destabilized the entire Gulf region shows no signs of abating.

The bottom line

• The US campaign against Iran has cost $630bn to $1 trillion with no clear victory in sight, leaving Saudi Arabia exposed to regional instability.
• The original plan for regime change by decapitation failed, leaving no Plan B and forcing a continuation of bombing that has deepened the crisis.
• Iran's HEU stockpile is a bargaining chip, not a weapon, and could be diluted or sent to Pakistan in a negotiated deal.
• Iran's threat to close the Red Sea and Suez Canal poses a direct risk to global trade and Saudi Arabia's economic lifeline.
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasingly at odds over how to handle the conflict, with Abu Dhabi aligning more closely with Israel.
• Any negotiated settlement would leave Iran's missile and drone capabilities intact, making it hard for Trump to claim victory.