Satellite imagery reveals catastrophic collapse of Sudan's breadbasket as war enters fourth year

Key facts

• Sudan's civil war began on April 15, 2023, between the RSF and SAF.
• The Gezira Scheme, spanning 924,000 hectares, historically produced half of Sudan's wheat.
• RSF captured Wad Madani in December 2023, leading to agricultural system collapse.
• Sudan's economy has shrunk by over 40% and one in three firms have closed.
• Around 13 million people have been displaced since the conflict began.
• Nearly 700 civilians were killed in drone strikes in the first three months of 2025.
• A drone strike by RSF killed five civilians in Khartoum on Saturday, the second in a week.
• 71% of closed businesses intend to reopen within a year.

War's toll on Sudan's agricultural heartland

Satellite imagery from Sentinel-2, analysed using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), has laid bare the devastation wrought by Sudan's civil war on its central farming regions. The fertile plains of Gezira, Sennar and Khartoum states — once known as the country's breadbasket — now appear as barren, dusty brown expanses where vibrant green irrigation grids once defined the landscape. The collapse began after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira state, in December 2023. The Gezira Scheme, an irrigation project spanning some 924,000 hectares between the Blue and White Nile Rivers with more than 8,000 kilometres of canals, had for decades produced half of Sudan's wheat. Its disintegration under RSF control triggered a catastrophic agricultural collapse in 2024, followed by only a fragile recovery after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) regained territory in 2025.

Desperate defence on the ground, captured from space

In the town of Abu Quta in northern Gezira state, RSF fighters equipped with heavy machine guns looted markets, the local police station and the agricultural bank in December 2023. In response, desperate farmers resorted to flooding their own irrigation canals, sacrificing their crops and turning fields into mud traps to halt the RSF's heavily armed pickup trucks. The data from space exposes a stark pattern: a catastrophic agricultural collapse during RSF control in 2024, followed by a fragile, limited recovery after the SAF regained territory in 2025. The fighting devastated a vast swath of a region crucial for the food security of one of the poorest nations on earth.

UNDP strategy: backing surviving businesses as lifeline

More than three years into the conflict, Sudan's economy has shrunk by over 40 percent, around one in three firms have closed, and about 13 million people have been displaced. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released its Sudan Private Sector Engagement Strategy 2026–2028, arguing that supporting the country's surviving businesses — farmers, traders, small manufacturers and diaspora-linked enterprises — is the only way to keep essential services running and ensure any chance of a quick recovery. The strategy is informed by surveys and interviews with more than 70 businesses, banks, business associations and diaspora entrepreneurs conducted in late 2025. It sets out five targeted, conflict-realistic interventions: a community finance mechanism building on Sudan's traditional sanduk savings groups; solar energy solutions for productive use; short, employer-led skills training through chambers of commerce; a public-private coordination compact; and a blended-finance facility to channel diaspora capital into small enterprise recovery.

Resilience amid devastation: numbers behind the crisis

Despite catastrophic damage, average micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) revenues have fallen by 35.8 percent, and nearly 87.8 percent of displaced firms have closed. Yet Sudan's private sector has not stopped. Agriculture, livestock and gum arabic continue to underpin millions of livelihoods. Solar-powered irrigation is keeping fields productive, particularly in eastern states. Diaspora remittances sustain households where banks no longer function. And 71 percent of closed businesses say they intend to reopen within a year. Luca Renda, UNDP Resident Representative in Sudan, stated: "Sudan's farms and businesses have shown remarkable resilience, continuing to operate even as the war disrupts every aspect of daily life. But resilience alone is not enough — they now need deliberate support to keep going." The strategy places particular emphasis on inclusion for women, youth and displaced populations, with dedicated training tracks, gender-responsive metrics and geographic allocation thresholds built into every initiative.

Renewed drone strikes shatter relative calm in Khartoum

A drone strike carried out by the RSF killed five civilians in Khartoum on Saturday, an independent legal group supporting victims of human rights violations in Sudan. The attack is the second in a week, following months of relative calm after government forces regained control of the capital last year. On Tuesday, a drone struck a hospital in the Jebel Awliya area, around 40 kilometres south of central Khartoum — the first such attack in the area in months. Emergency Lawyers said it holds the RSF fully responsible for the strike, accusing the group of breaching international humanitarian law. The NGO noted that the incident forms part of an ongoing pattern of attacks on civilians, with nearly 700 civilians killed in drone strikes in the first three months of this year.

Shifting frontlines and regional spillover

The Sudanese army, which now enjoys a solid grip in the north and east, launched a rapid counteroffensive last year that pushed the paramilitary forces out of the capital. Following intense fighting, Sudan's military government declared the Khartoum region "completely free" of RSF. Since then, the RSF has largely concentrated on expanding its control in its stronghold in the western Darfur region and pushing into neighbouring areas, capturing valuable oil-producing assets. Violence has also spread to southeastern Blue Nile state near the border with Ethiopia, raising fears of a more prolonged and fragmented conflict. More than 1.8 million displaced residents have returned to Khartoum, and the airport has resumed domestic flights, but much of the city remains without electricity or basic services.

Outlook: a fragile recovery hinges on private sector support

The UNDP strategy argues that in crises, the response often leans heavily on aid while underestimating the role of the private sector in sustaining food systems, jobs and essential services. "Yet it is precisely this network of farmers, traders, health workers and small businesses that keeps communities functioning," said Renda. "Without it, the human toll would be far greater. Supporting the private sector must therefore be central to any credible response." The strategy's five interventions are anchored in local systems and institutions to ensure that recovery programmes outlast external support. Each initiative is designed to be conflict-realistic, aiming to stabilize the economy and accelerate recovery even as fighting continues. Whether these measures can reverse the agricultural collapse and stem the humanitarian crisis remains an open question, but the data from both satellite imagery and business surveys underscores the urgency of action.

The bottom line

• Satellite data confirms that Sudan's breadbasket — the Gezira, Sennar and Khartoum states — has suffered catastrophic agricultural collapse under RSF control, with only limited recovery after SAF regained territory.
• The war has shrunk Sudan's economy by over 40%, closed one in three firms, and displaced 13 million people; 87.8% of displaced firms have closed.
• The UNDP's new strategy (2026–2028) focuses on five conflict-adapted interventions to support surviving businesses, including community finance, solar energy, skills training, public-private coordination, and diaspora capital.
• Despite devastation, 71% of closed businesses intend to reopen within a year, and sectors like agriculture, livestock and gum arabic continue to function.
• Renewed RSF drone strikes in Khartoum have killed five civilians, breaking months of relative calm; nearly 700 civilians have died in drone strikes in early 2025.
• The conflict is spreading to Blue Nile state near Ethiopia, raising risks of further fragmentation, while over 1.8 million displaced people have returned to Khartoum amid ongoing lack of basic services.