Decimal Point Error Adds Nearly R1 to South Africa's Diesel Price Hike as Record R30 Breach Looms

Key facts

• Diesel wholesale price to rise by R5.27 per litre from Wednesday, not R6.19 as initially announced.
• The error occurred because the department subtracted 0.93c from the diesel fuel levy instead of 93c.
• Diesel price will breach R30 for the first time, reaching R31.18 in Gauteng and R30.30 on the coast.
• Petrol price increases by R3.27 per litre from midnight on 5 May 2026.
• Average Brent crude oil price reached $101 over the past month, up from below $65 in January.
• The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure are throttling fuel supplies, driving global oil prices.
• Diesel prices are disproportionately affected by higher international demand and shortage of refinery capacity.

Lede: Fuel Price Shock Intensifies as Levy Miscalculation Compounds Pain

South African motorists and businesses face a record-breaking fuel price increase from Wednesday, with diesel set to breach R30 per litre for the first time after a decimal point error by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources added nearly R1 to the official hike. The department initially announced a wholesale diesel increase of almost R6.19 per litre, but corrected the figure to R5.27 on Tuesday after discovering that its calculation had subtracted only 0.93 cents from the diesel fuel levy instead of the intended 93 cents. The correction came too late for many consumers already bracing for the steepest monthly jump in fuel costs, as petrol also rises by R3.27 per litre from midnight. The error, confirmed by a department official who said stakeholders were informed on Tuesday morning, means diesel will still climb to a record high of R31.18 in Gauteng and R30.30 on the coast, rather than the initially stated R32.10 and R31.22.

How a Decimal Point Distorted the Diesel Levy Relief

The miscalculation stemmed from the government's attempt to cushion the economy from a fuel price shock exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. In April, the government cut the diesel fuel levy by R3 per litre to support economic activity. For May, this relief was scheduled to increase by 93 cents to R3.93 per litre. However, in its calculation for the May diesel price, the department's formula accidentally accounted for a change of 0.93 cents — one-hundredth of the intended amount. This error meant that the levy reduction was vastly understated, leading to an overstated price increase. The corrected calculation reduces the wholesale diesel hike by 92 cents per litre, but even after the adjustment, diesel prices will rise to unprecedented levels. The Central Energy Fund's updated release on Tuesday shows the corrected wholesale prices, replacing the erroneous figures published the previous day.

Global Oil Crisis and Weaker Rand Drive Costs Higher

The fuel price surge is rooted in a confluence of global pressures. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with renewed strain between the United States and Iran contributing to higher oil prices and fears of disruption to global energy supply. The Iran war has triggered a fuel price shock, with the average Brent crude oil price reaching $101 over the past month, up from below $65 in January. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to key infrastructure are throttling fuel supplies, analysts warn. A weaker rand has compounded the impact, driving up the landed cost of refined products. Diesel prices have been disproportionately affected by higher international demand and a shortage of diesel refinery capacity, according to industry experts. The combination of these factors has pushed South Africa's fuel prices to levels that economists say will add significant pressure on consumers and businesses already grappling with high inflation and slow growth.

Consequences: Consumers and Economy Brace for Impact

The sharp fuel price increases are expected to ripple through the economy, raising transport costs and feeding into higher prices for goods and services. Analysts warn that the hikes will add pressure on consumers, many of whom are already struggling with elevated living costs. The diesel increase is particularly concerning for sectors reliant on heavy transport, agriculture, and mining, where diesel is a key input. Motorists will feel the pinch at the pump from Wednesday, with petrol rising by R3.27 per litre. The combined effect of higher petrol and diesel prices is likely to stoke inflation, potentially forcing the South African Reserve Bank to reconsider its monetary policy stance. The government's fuel levy cuts, while providing some relief, have been insufficient to offset the magnitude of the global price shock.

Administrative Blunder Raises Questions About Oversight

The decimal point error has drawn criticism over the department's internal controls and the accuracy of official communications. The mistake was not caught before the initial announcement, leading to confusion and frustration among consumers and industry stakeholders. An official from the department confirmed the error and said stakeholders were informed on Tuesday morning, but the correction came less than 24 hours before the new prices take effect. The incident adds to a series of administrative challenges facing South Africa's fuel pricing system, which is already complex due to the combination of international benchmarks, exchange rate fluctuations, and levies. The department has not commented on whether disciplinary steps will be taken or if procedures will be reviewed to prevent similar errors.

Outlook: Record Prices and No Immediate Relief in Sight

With diesel breaching R30 for the first time and petrol at multi-year highs, South Africans face a prolonged period of elevated fuel costs. The geopolitical factors driving the crisis show no signs of abating, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high and the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global oil supplies. The average Brent crude oil price is expected to stay elevated, with some analysts predicting further increases if the situation escalates. On the domestic front, the weaker rand and lack of additional refinery capacity mean that South Africa remains vulnerable to external shocks. The government has limited tools to mitigate the impact, as further fuel levy cuts would strain the fiscus. For now, consumers and businesses must brace for a new era of expensive fuel, with the May increase serving as a stark reminder of the country's exposure to global energy markets.

The bottom line

• Diesel will rise by R5.27 per litre on Wednesday, corrected from an erroneous R6.19 due to a decimal point error in the fuel levy calculation.
• The price will breach R30 for the first time, reaching R31.18 in Gauteng and R30.30 on the coast.
• Petrol increases by R3.27 per litre, adding to the financial burden on consumers and businesses.
• Global oil prices are driven by the Iran war, Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a weaker rand, with Brent crude averaging $101 over the past month.
• Diesel is disproportionately affected by higher international demand and a shortage of refinery capacity.
• The administrative error highlights weaknesses in the department's oversight and communication processes.