UK Local Elections: Reform UK Eyes Gains Amid Labour's Projected Losses

Key facts

• More than one million people are eligible to vote on May 7.
• Labour is projected to lose 1,850 council seats.
• Londoners are electing councillors for 32 boroughs and five mayors.
• Reform UK rebranded from the Brexit Party in January 2021.
• In 2022, Labour won 21 of London's 32 councils.
• Labour has pledged to invest £4bn in a "Hospitals of the Future Fund" in Wales.
• Scotland's Labour party promised not to raise income tax for five years.

Nation Heads to Polls for Crucial Local Elections

Voters across the United Kingdom are casting ballots on May 7 in a significant set of local elections, determining the composition of thousands of council seats in England, Scotland, and Wales. These contests, the largest since 2024, also include mayoral elections in several English boroughs. The results are expected to offer a snapshot of the national political mood, with parties bracing for a day of reckoning. While local campaigns typically focus on area-specific policies rather than national manifestos, the outcomes are closely watched for their implications on broader political trends. Parties are issuing statements and making final appeals as the country awaits the verdict from the ballot boxes. The scale of the elections is substantial, with millions of eligible voters participating. In London alone, over six million residents are set to elect councillors for 32 boroughs and choose mayors in five key areas. The results from these local contests will be announced throughout the day, with Scottish and Welsh parliament results anticipated from midday.

Labour Faces Projected Losses Amid Cost of Living Concerns

The Labour Party is anticipating substantial setbacks in these local elections, with polling expert Lord Robert Hayward predicting a loss of approximately 1,850 seats. This projection comes after Labour held a significant majority of the seats now up for contest, underscoring the potential scale of the anticipated decline. Sir Keir Starmer, launching his party's campaign, emphasized "Labour values" and pledged measures to address the cost of living crisis, acknowledging it as the primary concern for most voters. Despite the government's encouragement for voters to support Labour candidates to ensure alignment with a Labour government, current low confidence in the administration may temper enthusiasm. Across various local Labour manifestos, common themes include commitments to build thousands of new social and affordable homes, enhance safety through more community wardens and CCTV, and implement green initiatives like tree planting and low-traffic neighbourhoods. Opportunities for young people, such as expanded youth club access and support for school leavers, are also frequently cited.

Reform UK Poised for Gains in Shifting Political Landscape

Reform UK, which officially rebranded from the Brexit Party in January 2021, is widely expected to secure a number of seats previously held by Labour and Conservative councillors. This anticipated surge follows the party's success in gaining control of several councils during the previous year's elections. The party's election slogan directly targets the current prime minister, urging the electorate to "Vote Reform." This positioning suggests a strategy focused on capitalizing on dissatisfaction with the incumbent government and appealing to voters seeking an alternative. In contrast to its potential gains, Reform UK did not secure any seats in the 2022 London local elections. The Green Party, while mounting a significant challenge to Labour in inner London this year, returned only 17 councillors across eight boroughs in the capital during the last local elections.

London's Electoral Battleground: A Mixed Picture

London's local elections feature a contest for 1,817 council seats across 32 boroughs, with mayoral elections in Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, and Tower Hamlets. Labour is defending the most local authorities, holding 21 councils, but faces competition from the Green Party in inner boroughs and independent candidates in east London. At the 2022 local elections, Labour achieved a dominant performance in the capital, winning 21 of the 32 councils. In two boroughs, Barking and Dagenham and Lewisham, Labour secured every single seat. Many London areas saw contests primarily between two mainstream parties, with Barnet, Bexley, Enfield, and others returning councillors from only two parties. However, Labour's popularity in London has reportedly declined since 2022, leading to by-election losses and defections. More than 50 Labour representatives have since joined the Green Party, forming opposition groups in Barking and Dagenham and Lewisham. Independent candidates have also made notable gains in east London, winning by-elections in Newham and Redbridge.

Devolved Nations' Pledges on Housing and Healthcare

In Wales, the Labour Party has committed to a substantial investment of £4 billion through a "Hospitals of the Future Fund." This fund is earmarked for the construction of new hospitals in Wrexham, Cardiff, and west Wales. The party has also pledged not to increase income tax rates. Similarly, in Scotland, Labour has promised to maintain current income tax levels for five years and to construct 125,000 new homes. These pledges aim to address key concerns regarding public services and housing availability in the devolved nation. The broader context of these elections includes a national mood influenced by economic pressures, particularly the cost of living. Parties are attempting to connect with voters on these issues while navigating the distinct policy landscapes of local governance and devolved administrations.

The bottom line

• The UK is holding significant local elections on May 7, with results due for councils across England, Scotland, and Wales.
• Labour is projected to suffer considerable losses, potentially losing around 1,850 seats.
• Reform UK is anticipated to make gains, capitalizing on voter sentiment.
• London's local elections involve contests for 32 borough councils and five mayoral positions.
• Labour has made specific pledges in Wales and Scotland, including hospital investments and housing targets.
• The cost of living crisis remains a central concern for voters, influencing party strategies.