Putin Tightens Security Amid Coup Fears, European Intel Report Reveals

Key facts

• obtained by CNN details new security measures around Vladimir Putin.
• Cooks, bodyguards, and photographers are banned from public transport; visitors must be screened twice.
• Putin and his family have stopped using their usual residences in Moscow region and Valdai.
• Putin has not visited a military facility in 2026 so far, relying on pre-recorded images.
• A drone hit a high-rise apartment in western central Moscow on Sunday night.
• Russian losses estimated at 30,000 dead and injured per month.
• Sergei Shoigu is associated with coup risk, per the report; his former deputy Ruslan Tsalikov was arrested on March 5.
• Security protocols extended to 10 more senior commanders after a dispute over protection of top brass.

Kremlin on Lockdown: New Measures After General's Killing

The Kremlin has dramatically tightened security around President Vladimir Putin, installing surveillance systems in the homes of close staffers and banning cooks, bodyguards, and photographers from using public transport, according to a obtained by CNN. The dossier, released by a source close to a European intelligence agency, details measures prompted by a wave of assassinations of top Russian military figures and fears of a coup. Visitors to the Kremlin chief must now be screened twice, and those working near him can only use phones without internet access. says some measures were put in place after the killing of a top general in December, which sparked a dispute in the top ranks of Russia's security establishment.

Putin's Shrinking World: Bunkers and Pre-Recorded Appearances

Russian security officials have drastically reduced the number of locations Putin regularly visits. He and his family have stopped going to their usual residences in the Moscow region and at Valdai, his secluded summer property between St. Petersburg and the capital. He has not visited a military facility this year so far, despite regular trips in 2025. To compensate, the Kremlin releases pre-recorded images of him to the public. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Putin also spends weeks at a time in upgraded bunkers, often in Krasnodar, a coastal region bordering the Black Sea hours away from Moscow.

Assassination Fears and the Drone Threat

states that since early March 2026, the Kremlin and Putin have been concerned about potential leaks of sensitive information and the risk of a plot or coup attempt. Putin is particularly wary of drones being used for an assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite. Just on Sunday night, a drone hit a high-rise apartment building in an upscale neighborhood of western central Moscow, according to local authorities and videos from the scene. provides rare detail of Moscow's concerns over deteriorating internal security. It also outlines a blowup in the Russian security and military command over who was responsible for protecting top brass, prompting a review of Putin's protocols and extending higher security to 10 more senior commanders.

The Shoigu Factor: Coup Risk and Elite Tensions

concerns former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, now serving as secretary of the says Shoigu 'is associated with the risk of a coup, as he retains significant influence within the military high command.' It adds that the arrest of Shoigu's former deputy and close associate, Ruslan Tsalikov, on March 5 is considered 'a breach of the tacit protection agreements among elites, weakening Shoigu and increasing the likelihood that he himself could become the target of a judicial investigation.' This suggests mounting unease within the Kremlin as it faces growing problems at home and abroad, including economic woes, increasing signs of dissent, and setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine.

War's Toll: 30,000 Casualties a Month and Economic Strain

Russian losses, estimated by Western nations at around 30,000 dead and injured each month, coupled with limited territorial gains on the frontline and repeated Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russia, have taken the conflict to a level many believe is unsustainable. The economic cost is now palpable, with cell-phone data outages regularly blighting major cities, angering even the pro-Putin bourgeoisie. This adds to a sense of the war beginning to hit the urban elite, who until now were mostly isolated from the invasion's impact. The dossier comes four years into what is described as a brutal and ill-fated war.

Two Paths Ahead: Iranian-Style Repression or Time of Troubles

Roman Anin, founder of Important Stories, which published the intelligence report, argues that Russia appears to be transitioning into a fundamentally different state. The deadlock in Ukraine, painful drone strikes on oil infrastructure, and economic and social problems are leading to a struggle among Russia's 'siloviki' clans for the throne of a weakening dictator. Anin outlines two possible scenarios: the Iranian path, where Putin consolidates loyal security services—primarily the FSO and National Guard—into an analogue of Iran's IRGC, using unprecedented repression to retain power; or the Time of Troubles, where the terror of the oprichnina, economic exhaustion, and devastation lead to civil war. He notes that each scenario is highly likely.

A Regime in Paranoia: The New Oprichnina

Putin, who built the system of power, understands well what awaits him—hence his growing paranoia, unprecedented isolation from the public and his inner circle, and an attempt to create a new oprichnina in the form of the Federal Protective Service, endowed with unlimited coercive powers. The report's details of surveillance, travel bans, and bunker life paint a picture of a leader increasingly cut off from reality. The implications are profound: whether through Iranian-style repression or a Time of Troubles, the coming period promises further isolation of Russia from the internet and the outside world, and a crackdown that will affect broader segments of the population, including those previously considered untouchable.

The bottom line

• reveals unprecedented security measures around Putin, including surveillance of staffers and bans on public transport for close aides.
• Putin has stopped visiting his usual residences and military facilities, relying on pre-recorded images and bunkers in Krasnodar.
• The killing of a top general in December triggered a dispute among security chiefs and a review of Putin's protection protocols.
• Sergei Shoigu is flagged as a coup risk, and the arrest of his deputy has weakened him, increasing the chance of a judicial investigation.
• Russian military losses of 30,000 per month and economic strain are fueling elite discontent and internal security fears.
• Analysts see two likely scenarios: consolidation of security forces into an Iranian-style repressive apparatus, or a descent into civil war akin to Russia's Time of Troubles.