Putin Declares Two-Day Ceasefire for Victory Day, Threatens Massive Strike on Kyiv if Violated

Key facts

• Russia declares unilateral ceasefire from May 8-9, 2026, for WWII Victory Day.
• Moscow threatens a 'massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv' if Ukraine disrupts celebrations.
• Ukraine announces its own ceasefire from midnight May 5-6, with no end time, acting 'symmetrically'.
• Russian strikes kill nine people across Ukraine, including seven in Merefa via Iskander missile.
• A Ukrainian drone crashes into a high-rise in Moscow; drone also kills one in Belgorod region.
• Russia's Victory Day parade will lack tanks and missiles for first time in nearly two decades.
• TsMAKP cuts Russia's 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.5-0.7% from 0.9-1.3% due to oil output hits.
• UK begins negotiations to join EU's £78bn loan scheme for Ukraine, with up to £400m contribution.

A Fragile Truce Offer Amid Escalating Violence

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 9, coinciding with Moscow's annual World War II Victory Day commemorations, the Russian defence ministry announced on Monday. The ministry warned that if Ukraine attempted to disrupt the celebrations, Russian forces would launch a 'retaliatory, massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv' and urged civilians and foreign diplomatic staff to leave the city promptly. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the Russian proposal as 'not serious,' noting that Kyiv had received no official request. Instead, he declared a Ukrainian ceasefire starting at midnight on May 5-6, saying Ukraine would 'act symmetrically' based on Russian actions. 'Human life is incomparably more valuable than the celebration of any anniversary,' he wrote on Telegram.

Duelling Ceasefires and Mutual Accusations

The Russian defence ministry stated that the ceasefire was ordered by Putin as Supreme Commander-in-Chief and expressed hope that Ukraine would follow suit. It claimed Russia had previously refrained from massive strikes on humanitarian grounds but would now retaliate if Kyiv implemented 'criminal plans' to disrupt the 81st anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. Zelenskyy countered that Russia's demand for a truce during its military holiday was cynical, especially as Moscow has ignored Kyiv's longstanding calls for a lasting ceasefire. He pointed out that Russia's defence ministry believed it could not hold a parade without Ukraine's goodwill, saying the Kremlin 'fears drones may buzz over Red Square.' This year's parade will be the first in nearly two decades without tanks, missiles, or other military equipment.

Deadly Strikes Continue on Both Sides

Despite the ceasefire declarations, Russian attacks killed at least nine people across Ukraine on Monday, Ukrainian officials reported. In the town of Merefa, near Kharkiv, a ballistic missile strike—likely an Iskander-type—killed seven civilians and wounded dozens more. In the southern Zaporizhzhia region, a husband and wife were killed in Vilnyansk, and their adult son wounded along with three others. On the Russian side, Belgorod region governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said a Ukrainian drone killed one civilian and wounded seven, including a 10-year-old boy. A Ukrainian drone also crashed into a high-rise building in an upscale Moscow neighbourhood overnight. In Brovary, Kyiv region, a Russian drone hit an apartment building, injuring two people, according to local officials.

Economic Strains and Diplomatic Lull

The ceasefire quarrel comes as US-led diplomatic efforts to end the war have stalled, with Washington's attention shifting to the Middle East. High global oil prices are unlikely to boost Russian economic growth this year, as Ukrainian drone attacks and Western sanctions constrain crude output and exports, according to the government-linked thinktank TsMAKP. It cut Russia's 2026 GDP growth forecast to between 0.5% and 0.7%, down from 0.9% to 1.3% a month ago. The economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, its first quarterly contraction since early 2023. Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries—what Kyiv calls 'kinetic sanctions'—as well as a halt to crude supplies through the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe. New government forecasts are expected later this month, with officials admitting the official 1.3% forecast is optimistic.

International Reactions and Security Concerns

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the benefit of joining the European Union's £78bn loan scheme for Ukraine 'outweighs the cost,' as he used a meeting of the European Political Community in Armenia to begin negotiations. If successful, British defence firms could provide equipment for Kyiv in return for a financial contribution of up to £400m. Meanwhile, the weather monitoring equipment at the illegally Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine was damaged in a drone strike. Zelenskyy landed in Bahrain for talks on 'security cooperation' after the summit, a source in the Ukrainian delegation said.

What Comes Next

The duelling ceasefires highlight the deep mistrust between the two sides. Ukraine's ceasefire begins at 00.00 on May 5-6, with no specified end time, while Russia's covers May 8-9. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would act symmetrically, implying that if Russia observes the truce, Kyiv may extend its own. However, given Russia's threat of a massive strike on Kyiv if its celebrations are disrupted, the situation remains volatile. Analysts warn that the pattern of unilateral ceasefires—most recently around Orthodox Easter—has had little to no impact on the ground. With diplomatic efforts in abeyance and both sides continuing strikes, the prospect of a lasting ceasefire appears remote. The coming days will test whether either side is willing to de-escalate or whether the commemorations will be met with further violence.

The bottom line

• Russia's unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day is coupled with a threat of a massive missile strike on Kyiv if violated.
• Ukraine offers its own ceasefire starting May 5, but dismisses Russia's proposal as cynical and not serious.
• Deadly strikes continue on both sides, including a ballistic missile attack that killed seven in Merefa.
• Russia's economy faces contraction and reduced oil output due to Ukrainian drone attacks and sanctions.
• The UK moves to join an EU loan scheme for Ukraine, potentially contributing up to £400m.
• Diplomatic efforts remain stalled as the US focuses on the Middle East, leaving a fragile and fragmented truce.